India Pakistan Sparring

[Aupmanyav]

For the last more than a month we have a tense border in Kashmir with Pakistan. Normally each side would request a flag meeting between Commanders. This time with the new government, we have chosen to reply in kind and amply so (which means if ten mortars are fired from Pakistan then we fire fifteen). Some twenty people have been killed on each side and a hundred injured. 20,000 people have had to shift from their villages on the border. India would not request a flag meeting. We are tired of repeated border violations. Let us see where does that take us. Normally border violations are to push terrorists into India.

 

[Valjean]

This conflict's been sputtering along since '47. With Modi at the helm, though, I wouldn't be surprised if a serious, shooting war broke out.

 

[Aupmanyav]

Modi is not a war-monger. He is a development-friendly person. But he will not be cowed down by any Pakiistan action and will reply in the same manner (unlike the previous weak-kneed government). The firing has stopped since 8 pm last night except perhaps for one post. Nawaz Sharif has called for an emergency National Security meeting today. I suppose the Pakistan government has understood that things have changed in India. Seems that this skirmish is over.

Yesterday's instructions to the border forces in India have been changed from responding disproportionately to Pakistan firing to respond proportionately.

 

[ratikala]

namaskaram Aupmanyav ji

We hear so many accounts here through news bulitens But I am never sure we hear the full story ,

if it could be simply expressed , which I am sure is more difficult than it sounds ? ... what do the Kashmeri people want appart from to live peacefully ?

 

[Aupmanyav]

To tell you the truth, Ratiben, Kashmiri Muslims want their hegemony in the valley and also in areas where Muslims are not in a majority (Jammu and Ladakh). They want India to keep on pouring money in Kashmir, so that they can all siphon it. They also want tourists from other parts of India to keep coming in large numbers and spend their money in Kashmir. They also want special facilities for education, jobs, and money for any of their enterprises (more than what is due to any other Indian citizen). They do not want to pay income tax or sales tax on their businesses (basically no law). The cry for freedom is only for show. They are smart people. But it is possible that parts of Kashmir will vote for Modi in the next election for state legislature which are going to be held soon, and we might see a BJP government in Kashmir (of the so-called Hindu party).

Kashmir assembly has 87 seats out of which Jammu has 37, Ladhakh 4, and the rest 46 in the valley. With a Hindu landslide in Jammu and some seats from Ladakh and the valley, Modi's party can get to the magic number of 44. They are working on it. In the Parliamentary elections, BJP won three of the six seats, two in Jammu and one in Ladakh.

Now, BJP hopes for 44-plus in J&K - Hindustan Times
J&K parties jittery over BJP
BJP
Modi in Ladakh, BJP plans 'mission 44' in JK | Kashmir Observer
BJP
BJP rushes Union ministers to J-K on its Mission 44+ - Hindustan Times
BJP?s mainstream plan aims for new Kashmir ki fiza
How does BJP hope to succeed in their mission 44+ in Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections if they are planning to scrap Article 370? - Quora
Amit Shah likely to achieve Mission 44 + for BJP - Early Times Newspaper Jammu Kashmir

 

[LuisDantas]

This is exactly the kind of situation that illustrates to me why Badshah Khan and Gandhi were right in insisting on opposing the separation of India and Pakistan.

Creating a border feeds the illusion that enforcing "national borders" (with blood and mortars in this case) is some sort of honorable solution, when it is anything but.

 

[Aupmanyav]

Well, we (including the Indian Muslims) escaped the horrors of terrorism by the partition. Look at Pakistan, there is not a day when ten terrorists are not killed by the government forces and not a day when the terrorists do not kill ten.

 

[Sb1995]

War will come soon and Hindu's will come back to Srinagar. Jai Hind.

 

[Vinayaka]

Well, we (including the Indian Muslims) escaped the horrors of terrorism by the partition. Look at Pakistan, there is not a day when ten terrorists are not killed by the government forces and not a day when the terrorists do not kill ten.

Most Muslims of India (in my very limited experience) know that fact really well, and have no inclination to move. They're entirely happy to be where they are, as they don't face minority discrimination or the potential of ethnic cleansing.

 

[LuisDantas]

But can that be called a solution? It really looks like it postponed the problem at best.

 

[Valjean]

Modi is not a war-monger. He is a development-friendly person. But he will not be cowed down by any Pakiistan action and will reply in the same manner (unlike the previous weak-kneed government). The firing has stopped since 8 pm last night except perhaps for one post. Nawaz Sharif has called for an emergency National Security meeting today. I suppose the Pakistan government has understood that things have changed in India. Seems that this skirmish is over.

Yesterday's instructions to the border forces in India have been changed from responding disproportionately to Pakistan firing to respond proportionately.

Modi demonstrated his moral fibre in the Gujarat riots.
But perhaps he can wrest some order from chaos -- he wouldn't be the first to make the trains run on time. :sarcastic

 

[Vinayaka]

But can that be called a solution? It really looks like it postponed the problem at best.

Luis, what post are you responding to?

 

[LuisDantas]

Yours.

 

[Vinayaka]

Luis, at partition, the population of Hindus in Pakistan was around 20%. It is now around 2%. That's the effect of 60 years of ethnic minority abuse, and a government that doesn't stick up for minorities at all.

Over the same time, the Muslim population in India has remained steady at 20%. It hasn't declined. That's the effect of a democratic government that protects it's minorities, even grants them special rights and favours. From India, an individual Muslim can apply for a grant to go to Mecca for their once a lifetime duty. The Pakistani government doesn't offer up the same.

So the average peace-loving Muslim who wants to get along, just as his family has for generations, in cities like Bangalore and many more, would rather stay in India. It's also 200 million people, Luis. That's no small number. Hindus in Pakistan now number around 3 million.

 

[LuisDantas]

Luis, at partition, the population of Hindus in Pakistan was around 20%. It is now around 2%. That's the effect of 60 years of ethnic minority abuse, and a government that doesn't stick up for minorities at all.

And perhaps of some migration. But sure, making a point of creating a Muslim state was certainly not helpful in keeping the Hindu population levels stable.

Right or wrong, the creation of Pakistan was meant to separate Muslims from Hindus, wasn't it?

Over the same time, the Muslim population in India has remained steady at 20%. It hasn't declined. That's the effect of a democratic government that protects it's minorities, even grants them special rights and favours. From India, and individual Muslim can apply for a grant to go to Mecca for their once a lifetime duty. The Pakistani government doesn't offer up the same.

Fair enough... but how does that imply that the separation was a good thing?

So the average peace-loving Muslim who wants to get along, just as his family has for generations, in cities like Bangalore and many more, would rather stay in India. It's also 200 million people, Luis. That's no small number. Hindus in Pakistan now number around 3 million.

Far from me to suggest that the problem is easy to solve, much less that there are few people involved. I wish I could.

 

[Vinayaka]

Fair enough... but how does that imply that the separation was a good thing?

I don't think I ever said it was a good thing. As an outsider, I lean towards being against partition in the first place. I certainly don't feel informed enough to have any real idea. But the fact of the matter is that they did it, and both sides have to deal with that decision, even 70 years later.

Knowing a little about the two main faiths that were involved, I now lean to India's side, obviously.

I just hope cooler heads prevail, and nothing big flares up, for all concerned.

 

[Aupmanyav]

Over the same time, the Muslim population in India has remained steady at 20%. It hasn't declined. That's the effect of a democratic government that protects it's minorities, even grants them special rights and favours.

This needs a little correction, Vinayaka. "Between 1961 and 2001, in absolute numbers, the Hindu population has grown from 366 million to 827 million - a growth of 126% while the Muslim population in the same period grew from 47 million to 138 million -- a growth of 193 per cent." Indian Census and Muslim population growth

Given below is the projection of Hindu and Muslim population in India. A factor in higher growth of Muslim population is the influx of illegal Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh. This is likely to continue in coming years and the Muslim growth is going to be greater than what is projected. So, from 9.9% in 1951 to 14.2% in 2011.

 

[Aupmanyav]

Fair enough... but how does that imply that the separation was a good thing?

We have a Muslim population of 177 million. Think what the situation for some 950 million Hindus would have been if Muslims were 510 million (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, including the terrorists). That is how it is good. At least we are able to live peacefully.

 

[Vinayaka]

Thanks Aup. I looked for such a thing, but couldn't find it.

 

[Aupmanyav]

Cross border firing has resumed.