Is the Euro going to collapse?

[sandandfoam]

What do you think?

Is European capitalism about to go the same way as the USSR?

 

[lunakilo]

Maybe, there certainly is problems in the eurozone at the moment.

But no, I don't think so.
I think there is enough european countries with a strong enough economy to save it.

 

[Reverend Rick]

Maybe, there certainly is problems in the euro zone at the moment.

But no, I don't think so.
I think there is enough European countries with a strong enough economy to save it.

The question is, will they? I'm not so sure the German's want to fund 55 year old Greek retirees.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

The zone might shrink, but I doubt it will collapse.
What ever happens the debts will remain, in what ever currency.

The problem was setting up a system with controls but no penalties for flouting them.

 

[lunakilo]

The question is, will they? I'm not so sure the German's want to fund 55 year old Greek retirees.

The zone might shrink, but I doubt it will collapse.
What ever happens the debts will remain, in what ever currency.

The problem was setting up a system with controls but no penalties for flouting them.

I am pretty sure the Germans don't want to finance the greek mess, or any other mess for that matter.
The question is "do they have a choice?"

What should the EU do? Let Greece go bankrupt and throw them out or the euro?
Is that smart politically? I don't think so.

If you let the zone shrink it is a sign that the EU is giving up on the euro. I am not sure that is a sign the people in chanrge want to send.

 

[Reverend Rick]

Then there is the Spain finacial crisis on the horizon too. We may see the return of the D-mark.

Perhaps Germany will be the one to leave the Euro Zone.

 

[sandandfoam]

It's not just Greece. There's the whole group - PIGS - and Italy. If any of them go at least some French and German banks will go too. No one can say where it'll stop.

Ireland is feeling just on the edge of boiling to me. Public services being frozen, police college closing. I think we're on the edge of the cliff.

 

[Reverend Rick]

Does anyone have any comments on China saving the day? They seem to like the Euro.

 

[sandandfoam]

Does anyone have any comments on China saving the day? They seem to like the Euro.

`

I heard a commentator make the point that just as capital flowed out of America into the Euro around the time of the Lehman collapse in the US it is now leaving Europe for Asia.

My suspicion is that the Euro can't be saved. Seems to be the view of at least some of the pro's.

In a frightening replay of the early stages of the credit crunch, Standard Chartered and Barclays are pulling out of Europe’s inter-bank funding markets and shifting billions of dollars to Asia. They fear a systemic meltdown that could leave them facing losses on supposedly low risk, short-term funding to a stricken rival bank. Asia is the new safe haven, just as European sovereign debt was – ironically – in the original financial crisis.

]
from
Battle lines drawn for a eurozone debt war - Telegraph

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

The international bankers do not like universal currencies like the euro.
They make most of their profit from speculating between currencies and moving cash between them. Every transaction between one currency and another makes them money.
The eurozone has cost them billions in lost trading.

The biggest loosers if Greece defaults or the Euro fails will be the Banks.
But in the end every one, every where pays.

 

[sandandfoam]

The biggest loosers if Greece defaults or the Euro fails will be the Banks.
But in the end every one, every where pays.

The only way I can see for us to get the burden of the banks off our necks is for capitalism as we know it to go the way of the USSR.

Social unrest does not appeal to me but I see no avoiding it.

 

[LuisDantas]

I'm a bit surprised that you see Capitalism, or even the Euro, as being to blame.

Granted, I have never even been in Europe. But the vibe I get is that the Euro is a good, if not all-out needed idea, that unfortunately has been presented to communities that aren't really mature enough to support it as needed.

Still, the major current blame seems to me to be in the lack of controls to the wild speculation of the bankers. People must stop accepting the unpunished damage that those people cause. Even more important is to let go of those feeble delusions of "separate nations", however. It is simply not realistic to expect other "nations"'' economies and policies to have no significant effects on one's own community.

 

[sandandfoam]

I'm a bit surprised that you see Capitalism, or even the Euro, as being to blame. .

Capitalism is to blame. Free market bull and light touch regulation coupled with Gordon Geko style 'greed is good'

But the vibe I get is that the Euro is a good, if not all-out needed idea

No. It is a tool of the political elite to foist unwanted centralisation of power on subject peoples.

that unfortunately has been presented to communities that aren't really mature enough to support it as needed.

Support it?
It is an instrument of control wielded for the benefit of the France and Germany.

Still, the major current blame seems to me to be in the lack of controls to the wild speculation of the bankers.

Agree

People must stop accepting the unpunished damage that those people cause.

Agree twice in a row!

Even more important is to let go of those feeble delusions of "separate nations", however

Disagree strongly. This is not about post natioinalism - it is about centralisation of power. To a bureaucratic unelected unaccountable elite.

It is simply not realistic to expect other "nations"'' economies and policies to have no significant effects on one's own community

We do not deserve nor did we ask to be sacrificed to save an unwanted European project. Frankfurts econoomic policies have ruined us. We have no economic sovereignty.
There is a strong possibility of revolution in Greece and beyond.

 

[LuisDantas]

Economic sovereignity is just like any other form of sovereignity: a delusion at the best of times, a shameful excuse for wide scale damage at most times.

Still, I think I see your point. There is much harm in having whole nations feeling pressured into participating in projects that they do not want. The levels of feeling of revolt can get very ugly indeed, and justifiably so.

 

[Reverend Rick]

There is a strong possibility of revolution in Greece and beyond.

I believe the U.S.A. is not unlike Greece. The people can revolt all they like, but if your a bankrupt nation, your still going to be broke when all is said and done.

People feel entitled to retire at 55 years old, but someone has to write the checks and they have to clear the bank.

You can take the money from the rich, but they will not be productive any longer.

I'm not going to work my butt off just to give everything away. What is the incentive in that?

So when you run out of other folks money, who keeps the entitlement checks afloat after that?

People can get mad and people can get even and revolt, but it looks to me like a temporary solution to a permanent problem.

 

[sandandfoam]

You can take the money from the rich, but they will not be productive any longer.

That's not the problem with the Euro.
On the contrary - money is being taken off citizens to bail out huge corporations.
This retirement thing is bull too. Retirement age here is 68 - I'll probably never be able to retire. We're still bankrupt.

 

[lunakilo]

Disagree strongly. This is not about post natioinalism - it is about centralisation of power. To a bureaucratic unelected unaccountable elite.

What is it with you and Bruxelles?

Why is centralisation of power as you call it a bad thing?
The national covernments can mess things up just as effectivly as the EU can, most likely they would be able to mess up even more.

You seem to think that had it not been for the EU there would have been no financial crises. That may not be what you mean to say, but that is whatr is sounds like to me.

In fact if the national governments in the countries in trouble had behaved like idiots (I include my own country here by the way even if we are not in as bad a shape as others) then things would not be as bad as they are.

More centralisation would probably have been better in this case if you ask me.

 

[lunakilo]

One other thing.

Banks are still cracking here in Denmark.
The larger banks seem to do ok (7-9-13), but the smaller ones are still in a lot of trouble.
The latest one went belly up last week.

I suppose this is not big news for anyone outside Denmark and I was just wondering if the same thing is happening elsewhere in Europe without it being big news anywhere else?

 

[sandandfoam]

You seem to think that had it not been for the EU there would have been no financial crises. That may not be what you mean to say, but that is whatr is sounds like to me..

That is exactly what I am saying.
Ireland had low interest rates when interest rates should have been high. Small countries like Ireland are incidental to EU fiscal planning. Our country is being laid waste by the EU.

More centralisation would probably have been better in this case if you ask me.

Ireland has no economic sovereignty. We're effectively an occupied country. How could there be more centralisation for us. The economy of this coountry is being managed from Frankfurt. I was at a meeting about the withdrawal of school bus services the other night and the junior minister said exactly that - Frankfurt is calling the shots.

 

[sandandfoam]

One other thing.

Banks are still cracking here in Denmark.
The larger banks seem to do ok (7-9-13), but the smaller ones are still in a lot of trouble.
The latest one went belly up last week.

I suppose this is not big news for anyone outside Denmark and I was just wondering if the same thing is happening elsewhere in Europe without it being big news anywhere else?

No. Our entire banking system is belly up. But big European banks had invested heavily in them so they were not allowed to fail. Their losses were socialised and are now part of our national debt. My unborn grandchildren will still be paying this money back many years in the future.