Italy 50% mortality rate with COVID-19

[oldbadger]

And to think we were just worried about BREXIT a few months back! This pandemic has certainly put things into perspective.

Yeah... What's Brexit?
I have not heard that word on the news for yonks.

 

[Cooky]

You focused so much on the increase in numbers last time. How's that holding up?

I'm just watching deaths and recoveries... hoping for a widening gap in favor of recoveries.

...I hope it happens soon as predicted by the 1 to 3 percenters. Only time can truly tell.

 

[Martin]

Yeah... What's Brexit?
I have not heard that word on the news for yonks.

It seems like everyone has lost interest in that now. Every cloud has a silver lining, I guess.

 

[exchemist]

I'm just watching deaths and recoveries... hoping for a widening gap in favor of recoveries.

...I hope it happens soon.

You may never get the figures you want. If tests are in limited supply, they won't waste them on checking recovered people, to sign them off as officially free from the virus. They may just give them a number of days to stay isolated and leave them to it. For this reason I would expect the "recovered" number to lag a long way behind the number of deaths and the number of confirmed infections.

 

[Martin]

I'm just watching deaths and recoveries... hoping for a widening gap in favor of recoveries.

...I hope it happens soon as predicted by the 1 to 3 percenters. Only time can truly tell.

I think you're still missing the point. Mortality rate is the number of deaths as a percentage of the total number infected.
Its not the number of deaths as a percentage of the minority who become seriously ill. That figure is about 15% in Italy, based on the death rate for ICU patients on ventilators.

And as noted before, the actual total number of people infected is likely to be many times higher than the official figures suggest. That's partly because the virus has an incubation period, with infected people being asymptomatic for the first week. And partly because many people have mild symptoms, which don't require medical intervention.

 

[Howard Is]

You may never get the figures you want. If tests are in limited supply, they won't waste them on checking recovered people, to sign them off as officially free from the virus. They may just give them a number of days to stay isolated and leave them to it. For this reason I would expect the "recovered" number to lag a long way behind the number of deaths and the number of confirmed infections.

That is what is happening in Australia now. The advice is that tests are only for people who have been overseas, or in the company of someone known to be infected.
Otherwise, self-isolate if you have symptoms.

There will be no accurate figures from Australia. Or perhaps anywhere. The virus is very infectious and has a long survival time on surfaces. The infection rate will be much higher than reported, in all countries IMO.

 

[exchemist]

That is what is happening in Australia now. The advice is that tests are only for people who have been overseas, or in the company of someone known to be infected.
Otherwise, self-isolate if you have symptoms.

There will be no accurate figures from Australia. Or perhaps anywhere. The virus is very infectious and has a long survival time on surfaces. The infection rate will be much higher than reported, in all countries IMO.

Yes, I was just looking at the latest sitrep on the WHO website. They have a table with a running tally of cases and death by country. What is noticeable is that the number of deaths as a proportion of reported cases varies widely. I looked at Switzerland, as it is the sort of place where I would expect they might be on top of it, and at the moment only 1% of reported cases has died, whereas in Italy it is much higher. I presume this will because of more efficient tracing and testing of contacts in Switzerland. But we've all got to be very wary of trying to second-guess what the experts are saying, because we have no way of working out what lies behind these numbers.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

Arch Bishops of Canterbury and York have just suspended all public church services till further notice.
churches will remain open for private prayer.

 

[Rational Agnostic]

...It appears the coronavirus is taking lives at an increasing rate. I don't know if the CDC is not wanting us to know this, the death toll seems substantially higher in Europe than was reported in China.

Italy closes bars, restaurants and most shops as coronavirus death toll jumps 30%

Coronavirus Italy: death toll leaps 23% in a day to over 15,000 | Daily Mail Online

Read the article. 827/12,462 is far less than 50 percent. Stop spreading false information.

 

[exchemist]

Arch Bishops of Canterbury and York have just suspended all public church services till further notice.
churches will remain open for private prayer.

Crikey! That puts Nicholls under pressure now, for the Catholics. Will I get to sing the Passion on Good Friday or not, I wonder......

 

[Wandering Monk]

Just saw the numbers in the UK on Skynews.

55,000 tested
1,950 confirmed
55 deaths.

 

[Rational Agnostic]

Even according to your own chart, 1,266 have died and 1439 have recovered... That's about a 50% mortality rate.

Incorrect. You have forgotten about people who are currently sick, which is the majority since it's a new virus.

 

[Martin]

Just saw the numbers in the UK on Skynews.

55,000 tested
1,950 confirmed
55 deaths.

But they estimate the actual number infected is about 10 times the "confirmed" figure above, so around 20,000 people have the virus in the UK.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

But they estimate the actual number infected is about 10 times the "confirmed" figure above, so around 20,000 people have the virus in the UK.

It would seem the danger is the number of people that are infectious at any one time not the totals of cases and deaths.

Those that have recovered are "Free Agents" and highly employable and useful. though they can still smear the infection from other people, so hygiene is still important for them. they would be useful in food preparation distribution and retail

 

[Cooky]

I think you're still missing the point. Mortality rate is the number of deaths as a percentage of the total number infected.
Its not the number of deaths as a percentage of the minority who become seriously ill. That figure is about 15% in Italy, based on the death rate for ICU patients on ventilators.

And as noted before, the actual total number of people infected is likely to be many times higher than the official figures suggest. That's partly because the virus has an incubation period, with infected people being asymptomatic for the first week. And partly because many people have mild symptoms, which don't require medical intervention.

I would appreciate people being open to both hard facts, and estimates. IOW, we will never know how many were infected, and calculating that in our figures truly is an estimate, on how many are 'likely' affected but show zero to mild symptoms.

....What I have proposed us using *hard facts* on numbers calculated by physical proof and not estimates.

IMO, we should allow both types of interpretations to be used for study purposes.

 

[Cooky]

It would seem the danger is the number of people that are infectious at any one time not the totals of cases and deaths.

Those that have recovered are "Free Agents" and highly employable and useful. though they can still smear the infection from other people, so hygiene is still important for them. they would be useful in food preparation distribution and retail

Yes, both ways of interpreting this have benefits and downsides. For instance, some people still believe COVID-19 is comparable to the flu, which is where my *hard facts* style of interpreting statistics is beneficial. The downside is that it may cause paranoia in others.

 

[Cooky]

There will be no accurate figures from Australia. Or perhaps anywhere.

Right, there will never be an answer on total number infected. Not with hard facts. There can only be estimates.

...Both views having importance.

 

[Cooky]

Incorrect. You have forgotten about people who are currently sick, which is the majority since it's a new virus.

Once those cases are complete, they can be figured in as hard facts. For those who prefer estimates based on calculations, they can use the 1, 3, 5, or 7% figures, which are proposed estimates.

 

[exchemist]

I would appreciate people being open to both hard facts, and estimates. IOW, we will never know how many were infected, and calculating that in our figures truly is an estimate, on how many are 'likely' affected but show zero to mild symptoms.

....What I have proposed us using *hard facts* on numbers calculated by physical proof and not estimates.

IMO, we should allow both types of interpretations to be used for study purposes.

That is fine, so long as you know what the numbers you are using signify.

 

[Cooky]

That is fine, so long as you know what the numbers you are using signify.

I certainly do. Thanks for understanding.