I've Been Warning Y'all....Many Low Skill Jobs Will Soon Disappear

[Ouroboros]

It wouldn't happen that way.
In our democracy, the non-workers would be a majority, & vote themselves in a welfare state.
They'd still be consumers.
Taxes paid by the workers & businesses would support these consumers....a bit like a snake eating its own tail.
Hey, @Ouroboros !!!

Heck yeah! It's the perpetuum mobile.

 

[Revoltingest]

Btw, Google's AlphaGo has won game 2 against Lee Sedol (a 9 dan pro go player).
This is an AI development which happened much earlier than predicted.
Deep Blue beat Kasparov 19 years ago.
Playing go is a much more difficult problem.
I expect that the technology has arrived to write leases, contracts, & do the work of legal staff.

 

[beenherebeforeagain]

Btw, Google's AlphaGo has won game 2 against Lee Sedol (a 9 dan pro go player).
This is an AI development which happened much earlier than predicted.
Deep Blue beat Kasparov 19 years ago.
Playing go is a much more difficult problem.
I expect that the technology has arrived to write leases, contracts, & do the work of legal staff.

You know that the lawyers, since they make up the majority of law makers, will never allow robots to take over their job as ... robots.

 

[Revoltingest]

You know that the lawyers, since they make up the majority of law makers, will never allow robots to take over their job as ... robots.

This is true, but their support staff will dwindle.

 

[freethinker44]

But if there is no product to buy then those in the lowest economic strata will die first, and quickly. Whether you like it or not, most "wealth" is generated by providing a product and/or service that others need or want. If there is no chance of gaining wealth why bother to produce? ME made the mistake of not allowing capitalism to produce for the masses.

Robots don't care about wealth.

 

[Moishe3rd]

Vis a vis robots and jobs - Whatchoo talkin' about Willis?
Nurses; Caregivers; plumbers; electricians; carpenters; handymen; bricklayers; and on and on and on... We all be workin'; when we want; how we want; and getting paid what we want!
I have worked in the Trades for the last 35 - 45 years. Admittedly, I'm relatively quick witted so, I have always ended up anything from Foreman to Operations Manager to Vice President when I worked for someone else. And, although I am today more of a Glorified Handyman - I have been a licensed General Contractor and have built a whole bunch of stuff....
I never understood why anyone would want to work in a factory or make a career out of the low paying service industry. All that says to me is that they cannot get another job where they have to learn and work harder to make a living. It has nothing to do with education; "equal opportunity;" etc. It has to do with willingness to work and, yes - a certain intellectual learning ability. So... if a person does not have that learning ability then, they may end up on the low end of the stick. Sorry. Life happens.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

plumbers; electricians; carpenters; handymen; bricklayers; and on and on and on...

For now. When there is less money being spread around, more people will learn to do those things themselves.

 

[Moishe3rd]

For now. When there is less money being spread around, more people will learn to do those things themselves.

And those who learn to do it themselves and excel at it - will work for those who can pay them.
More people equals less money spread around.
It doesn't equal less people with money.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

It doesn't equal less people with money.

It does when fewer people are hiring mechanics, electricians, carpenters, plumbers, and other such professions when people start doing those things themselves because they can't afford to hire someone to do it for them.

 

[Moishe3rd]

It does when fewer people are hiring mechanics, electricians, carpenters, plumbers, and other such professions when people start doing those things themselves because they can't afford to hire someone to do it for them.

I think you missed my point.
There will not be Fewer people.
There may be More people. And, More people might be earning less money. This is possible.
But, there are still going to be at least as many people as there are now, perhaps increasing more slowly, who are earning enough money doing whatever it is they do that they have to hire someone else to do the things that they have neither the time nor inclination to do.
It has always worked that way throughout all of human history.
Now, admittedly, when civilization collapses completely and chaos reigns then, there is indeed less demand....

 

[freethinker44]

But, there are still going to be at least as many people as there are now, perhaps increasing more slowly, who are earning enough money doing whatever it is they do that they have to hire someone else to do the things that they have neither the time nor inclination to do.

Until robots are created to do all those things. Then they will be out of work.
It might sound like science fiction or the distant future but it's actually happening pretty quickly. Much faster than most people realize.

 

[illykitty]

Vis a vis robots and jobs - Whatchoo talkin' about Willis?
Nurses; Caregivers; plumbers; electricians; carpenters; handymen; bricklayers; and on and on and on... We all be workin'; when we want; how we want; and getting paid what we want!

The care aspects, I agree with. It will be a long while before that can be replaced and people might still prefer to have a human nurse. But bricklayers and all? There are robots being made to replace these people. I know there's a bricklaying robot already, who does the work at much greater speed. There is still a need for a human for the more complex areas and finishing touches but it can do the job much quicker. Also another tech coming is massive 3D printing. A house can be build so quickly with it. A Chinese company managed to build 10 houses in a single day with this technology. I can find links if you want me to.

People always think "my job can't possibly be replaced". Oh yes it can. No job is safe from that. Not even creative work. It's truly astounding and it's never been like this before. Anything can be automated, it's just a matter of time. In the next 30-40 years, basically all robotic and AI experts, and futurologists, expect a huge amount of jobs to be lost. It's getting so serious that even news are talking about it. BBC made an article with a job selector to see if you're likely to be replaced. Carpenter? 72% likely to be replaced. Bricklayer? 82% And in my opinion, they're being on the conservative side, since those already exist. It's just wondering when it's going to be fully implemented and perfected.

 

[Moishe3rd]

The care aspects, I agree with. It will be a long while before that can be replaced and people might still prefer to have a human nurse. But bricklayers and all? There are robots being made to replace these people. I know there's a bricklaying robot already, who does the work at much greater speed. There is still a need for a human for the more complex areas and finishing touches but it can do the job much quicker. Also another tech coming is massive 3D printing. A house can be build so quickly with it. A Chinese company managed to build 10 houses in a single day with this technology. I can find links if you want me to.

People always think "my job can't possibly be replaced". Oh yes it can. No job is safe from that. Not even creative work. It's truly astounding and it's never been like this before. Anything can be automated, it's just a matter of time. In the next 30-40 years, basically all robotic and AI experts, and futurologists, expect a huge amount of jobs to be lost. It's getting so serious that even news are talking about it. BBC made an article with a job selector to see if you're likely to be replaced. Carpenter? 72% likely to be replaced. Bricklayer? 82% And in my opinion, they're being on the conservative side, since those already exist. It's just wondering when it's going to be fully implemented and perfected.

How odd.
Here's a question - how do you think I have continued to work as a self employed Contractor; handyman; jack of all trades; etc - for the last 35 years? Am I better than the competition? No. Do I advertise? No. Am I more efficient; cheaper; more reliable; etc.? No.
However - I speak English - people like that.
I am a Torah observant Jew - people like that.
I am human - people like that.
And, I am a friendly kind of anecdotal guy who, in general, people like.

And, by the way - all of the new service companies today - plumbing; electrical; HVAC - have all started up and become MORE successful than their old counterparts by stressing friendliness (plus reliability and punctuality which guys like me are notorious for failing at...).
I guarantee that, if the cost is similar, that people are going to pay People to fix things and help them, not robots.
People even get more satisfaction out of "making" a person do something they won't or can't do than they would a machine.
Think about it.

 

[BSM1]

It wouldn't happen that way.
In our democracy, the non-workers would be a majority, & vote themselves in a welfare state.
They'd still be consumers.
Taxes paid by the workers & businesses would support these consumers....a bit like a snake eating its own tail.
Hey, @Ouroboros !!!

I understand

How odd.
Here's a question - how do you think I have continued to work as a self employed Contractor; handyman; jack of all trades; etc - for the last 35 years? Am I better than the competition? No. Do I advertise? No. Am I more efficient; cheaper; more reliable; etc.? No.
However - I speak English - people like that.
I am a Torah observant Jew - people like that.
I am human - people like that.
And, I am a friendly kind of anecdotal guy who, in general, people like.

And, by the way - all of the new service companies today - plumbing; electrical; HVAC - have all started up and become MORE successful than their old counterparts by stressing friendliness (plus reliability and punctuality which guys like me are notorious for failing at...).
I guarantee that, if the cost is similar, that people are going to pay People to fix things and help them, not robots.
People even get more satisfaction out of "making" a person do something they won't or can't do than they would a machine.
Think about it.

Most of my customers over the last 28 years think my last name is my company name, lol.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

I guarantee that, if the cost is similar, that people are going to pay People to fix things and help them, not robots.

Except there is no reason to assume the cost will be similar. And not only that, robots do not need breaks, they do not need lunch, they don't have to stretch a sore limb or back, and it takes a lot more to "injure" them than it does us. Robots don't have themselves or a family to feed, they don't have to pay for a roof over their head, they don't have bills, and they are guaranteed to never ask for a raise or better benefits.

 

[Revoltingest]

Except there is no reason to assume the cost will be similar. And not only that, robots do not need breaks, they do not need lunch, they don't have to stretch a sore limb or back, and it takes a lot more to "injure" them than it does us. Robots don't have themselves or a family to feed, they don't have to pay for a roof over their head, they don't have bills, and they are guaranteed to never ask for a raise or better benefits.

You should get a job as a robot salesman!

(Btw, I'm trying to make "salesman" the gender neutral standard word.)

 

[illykitty]

How odd.
Here's a question - how do you think I have continued to work as a self employed Contractor; handyman; jack of all trades; etc - for the last 35 years? Am I better than the competition? No. Do I advertise? No. Am I more efficient; cheaper; more reliable; etc.? No.
However - I speak English - people like that.
I am a Torah observant Jew - people like that.
I am human - people like that.
And, I am a friendly kind of anecdotal guy who, in general, people like.

And, by the way - all of the new service companies today - plumbing; electrical; HVAC - have all started up and become MORE successful than their old counterparts by stressing friendliness (plus reliability and punctuality which guys like me are notorious for failing at...).
I guarantee that, if the cost is similar, that people are going to pay People to fix things and help them, not robots.
People even get more satisfaction out of "making" a person do something they won't or can't do than they would a machine.
Think about it.

Because in the last 35 years, there wasn't an intelligent cheap robot to replace you. @Shadow Wolf made an excellent reply. Robots will be cheaper, since they don't need salaries and so on.

Perhaps some people will cling to having a human touch, at least those who can afford it. But I'm sure most people will just use whatever is cheaper and more efficient. I mean, a somewhat related example, why do so many shop at Wal Mart? Is it their great quality, service and being ethical? Of course not, it's just cheap. Robots can't screw you over either, as some people in construction or repair do. We had our windows fitted and the guy did a poor job they had to send someone else. Both a waste of time (for both) and money (for the company). Don't have this problem with robots. They don't so as many mistakes and they don't get lazy or whatever else.

I'm just saying the world is on the verge of changing and no job is truly safe. Perhaps it's best to be prepared than just cling to past notions to make ourselves feel safe and comforted.

 

[Moishe3rd]

Because in the last 35 years, there wasn't an intelligent cheap robot to replace you. @Shadow Wolf made an excellent reply. Robots will be cheaper, since they don't need salaries and so on.

Perhaps some people will cling to having a human touch, at least those who can afford it. But I'm sure most people will just use whatever is cheaper and more efficient. I mean, a somewhat related example, why do so many shop at Wal Mart? Is it their great quality, service and being ethical? Of course not, it's just cheap. Robots can't screw you over either, as some people in construction or repair do. We had our windows fitted and the guy did a poor job they had to send someone else. Both a waste of time (for both) and money (for the company). Don't have this problem with robots. They don't so as many mistakes and they don't get lazy or whatever else.

I'm just saying the world is on the verge of changing and no job is truly safe. Perhaps it's best to be prepared than just cling to past notions to make ourselves feel safe and comforted.

You know, I've been reading science fiction since I was about 7 years old. And, one great thing about the old sci fi was that none of it ever came true. (And, don't start telling me about cell phones and and the like - I'm talking about books; novels; written words that explored the future, not movie props.)

Why aren't there flying cars and a socialist utopia?
Because - there's no demand or, it costs too much. That's it. Period.
If people wanted robots that could fix things and take care of them - they would exist now. We have the tech and the ability to mass produce.
People happen to crave people...
(Well, except perhaps those who spend their lives on Facebook or other internet forums engaging in vicarious talk without ever having to actually interact... )

 

[Shadow Wolf]

I'm just saying the world is on the verge of changing and no job is truly safe. Perhaps it's best to be prepared than just cling to past notions to make ourselves feel safe and comforted.

So very true. And we must prepare for it, yesterday, because to fight this change is like trying to change the course of a raging river heading towards you with nothing more than your fists.

You know, I've been reading science fiction since I was about 7 years old. And, one great thing about the old sci fi was that none of it ever came true. (And, don't start telling me about cell phones and and the like - I'm talking about books; novels; written words that explored the future, not movie props.)

A lot of "science fiction" has indeed turned into "science fact," and if we don't have them, such as submarines or tablets, a lot of it has been worked out, such as teleportation or "true" stealth technology. And just because it may be difficult and expensive today doesn't mean it will be tomorrow.
I'm 29. When I was a kid, never did I think we'd have the things we have now. Computers were rare and expensive, we didn't have the internet, and instant communication with anyone in the world that includes video wasn't something we thought of as a reality. But now we have 3D printers.

(Well, except perhaps those who spend their lives on Facebook or other internet forums engaging in vicarious talk without ever having to actually interact... )

That is a lot of people anymore, who let their cell phones and social media absorb them. People are physically interacting less, and when they physically interact they still have their phones on them and out like a crack addict who is typically within arms reach of a rock.

 

[Revoltingest]

Sci fi.....
I remember back when Star Wars came out.
I thought it funny how primitive their target acquisition systems were compared to then current technology.
But I understood that having Millennium guns function like WW2 bomber turret guns is more exciting.