Murders vs Electoral Map

[Quetzal]

The questions you asked are not part of my research. If you wish to discuss them, produce the data.

Sure it is. All of my questions contribute to the the overarching topic of murder rates in cities.

 

[Quetzal]

What are my job duties, since you seem to know so well? I am a CSI that also sends in our UCRs, so please tell me what you think my job duties are. The information is public btw. I just have easier access to the info.

I learn more about you everyday, ND.

 

[Neo Deist]

Sure it is. All of my questions contribute to the the overarching topic of murder rates in cities.

I'll wait until you actually have something to contribute...

 

[Quetzal]

I'll wait until you actually have something to contribute...

Same could be said for you, 5 pages later and you are still coming up short.

 

[Neo Deist]

I learn more about you everyday, ND.

That is a good thing!

 

[Neo Deist]

Same could be said for you, 5 pages later and you are still coming up short.

Nah, you are just failing to realize that the data is supported by facts. Once again...

FBI stats = facts
Election results by city = facts

I just combined the two. Are you now saying that 1+1 = 0?

 

[Quetzal]

Nah, you are just failing to realize that the data is supported by facts. Once again...

FBI stats = facts
Election results by city = facts

I just combined the two. Are you now saying that 1+1 = 0?

You aren't listening so I am not going to repeat myself (again). Instead, I would like to present you a baby panda who loves his ball:

 

[Neo Deist]

You aren't listening so I am not going to repeat myself (again).

You are correct. I am using my eyes, not my ears, to read your statements.

Instead, I would like to present you a baby panda who loves his ball:

Awww, how cute!

 

[Nous]

Which party did the majorities in cities (greater than 250,000) with the lowest murder rates vote for?

If your suggestion of a correlation were meaningful, then perhaps the cities with the highest murder rates should follow the example of the cities with lowest murder rates with respect which party the majority votes for President. And I suspect that they do and did in the most recent election. Right?

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

One would expect more murders per capita to take place in large cities any where in the world.

It is also true that cities tend to be more left wing than rural areas throughout the world.

The two statistics are not linked

 

[shmogie]

Gee...much better. I was worried there that this conversation was going to be mired in self-congratulations.

You don't see the irony in your generalizations at all?

None whatsoever. Liberalism was on the verge of totally destroying the Republic, and now it will be quashed. I love to use the basest terms with liberals, it really infuriates them as pseudo intellectuals and condescending know it alls, their arrogance is only surpassed by their shock at the election results. They DESERVE to be called out for their utter failures and superciliousness, if I can phrase it in a way that they feel those whom they condemned (half the country) for being dumb and ill informed, so much the better, and if true generalizations add to the effect, ill use those too

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

So, is it that the FBI crime stats are wrong (UCRs - reported by law enforcement agencies from across the country), or is it those cities did not actually vote majority Democrat and the AP is just lying about the election results?

Do you understand what researcher degrees of freedom are?

 

[columbus]

Nah, you are just failing to realize that the data is supported by facts. Once again...

FBI stats = facts
Election results by city = facts

I just combined the two. Are you now saying that 1+1 = 0?

But the data doesn't support any conclusions, much less the highly partisan implications of the OP. The implications are clear to most of us, even if they aren't to you. Makes you look blinded by partisanship to not see that.

A few years back I read something similar, only Democratic. It was much better evidenced. Ten years of data showing how Democratic states subsidized Republican states. Super blue states like Connecticut and Washington got back less than .80 per federal tax dollar paid. Super red states like Alabama and Wyoming got over 1.25 per dollar. It controlled for the make up of DC, covering a time period including a Rep pres and Rep congress, Dem pres and Dem congress, and both kinds of splits.

The Republican states consistently get and the Democratic states consistently pay. Over the ten years Republican states soaked Democratic states for well over a trillion dollars. Dems had subsidized Rep farms and industries, infrastructure, and entitlement checks for over a trillion dollars.
The conclusion reached was that Republicans, as a group, are less productive, greedier, and more hypocritical than Democrats. The hypocritical part came from the observation that Republicans complain bitterly about big government, unless they are the ones cashing in. Then big government is just common sense.

I saw that essay as rather more partisan than useful. But the conclusions were very well evidenced by statistics straight from the government.
Tom

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

My research consisted of this:

1. I logged in through our P.D. FBI portal (I am a cop - we send in UCRs) and looked at cities with populations over 100,000 people, and the murder rates for the year 2015. Originally I only chose the top 10 cities, but those were so obvious that I expanded it to 25, hoping to get a deeper sampling. I intentionally did not include the race or gender of either the suspects or victims, as I wanted ALL to be represented. I printed off those top 25 cities.

2. Then I used the election results for those same cities (already gave the link) and it shows county by county, how those areas voted.

3. I took the print out and wrote down how each of those cities voted (majority based).

The end result is a data table that is FACTUAL, based off FBI crime stats, and the election results. My research, contrary to your statement of "not very well done," was detailed and spot on.

It is what it is.

- why only cities? Why not rural areas?
- why only the 25 largest cities? Why not 15 or 50?
- why did you look only at the binary of which party won? Why not the number of votes for either party? Why not the percentage of votes?
- why murder specifically? Why not all violent crime? Why not all crime?
- why only one year of crime stats?
- why only one year of voting stats?

Even if you didn't actually fabricate any data, your decisions affect what results you find. Change any of these variables and your result will change; sometimes only a little, sometimes significantly.

 

[shmogie]

One would expect more murders per capita to takeke place in large cities any where in the world.

It is also true that cities tend to be mre left wing than rural areas throughout the world.

The two statistics are not linked

More fantasy. The statistics are absolutely linked. These cities, who voted for democrats, most controlled by democrats, also have the hallmark of liberal control, rotten crime ridden neighborhoods, weal law enforcement in these area's, a higher tolerance to drug use, bad schools all the rest. I LOVE seeing the hair splitting being done by those bent on defending the indefensible, so very typical

Supporting a claim goes along way. I see you have no interest in supporting your claim which is grounds for dismissal of your claim.

Your interest is irrelevant to everyone but yourself. It certainly does not make your claims true.




Irrelevant.

No, not to the people who live in these murderous citie's Chicago being a sterling example of one.

 

[Neo Deist]

Which party did the majorities in cities (greater than 250,000) with the lowest murder rates vote for?

If your suggestion of a correlation were meaningful, then perhaps the cities with the highest murder rates should follow the example of the cities with lowest murder rates with respect which party the majority votes for President. And I suspect that they do and did in the most recent election. Right?

I will look into the info that you asked about and post it here when I complete the data. As a teaser, I will go ahead and list the safest city in the US with a population over 100,000.

Irvine, CA - Republican (although Orange Co. voted majority Hillary by ~4%)
- Democrats - 34.6%
- Republicans - 31.1%
- Independent - 30.5%
- Mayor: Steven S. Choi, PhD (R)
- All district reps for the state are Republican

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

More burgers are eaten per capita in cities.

do burgers cause people to murder?

No one has demonsrated any connections so far in this thread.

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

Nah, you are just failing to realize that the data is supported by facts. Once again...

FBI stats = facts
Election results by city = facts

I just combined the two. Are you now saying that 1+1 = 0?

Per capita cheese consumption = facts
Number of people who die from being entangled in their bedsheets = facts

http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=7

 

[Neo Deist]

- why only cities? Why not rural areas?

Because "Hayseed", Montana is not exactly a hot bed of violent crime. Rural areas typically have MUCH less crime than large cities. The small town that I live in has not had a reported murder in over 50 years. The city that I work for has as average of 1.5 every week.

 

[McBell]

Per capita cheese consumption = facts
Number of people who die from being entangled in their bedsheets = facts

http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=7

I conclude that bed sheets dislike cheese farts so much they attack the farter.