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PROBABILITY OR POSSIBILITY OR JUST IMPOSSSIBLE

NewGuyOnTheBlock

Cult Survivor/Fundamentalist Pentecostal Apostate
While I am not a mathematician, there are, nonetheless, glaring errors in this computation which can be picked out by mere logic.
  • Not all species bear the same amount of offspring within the same time period. Mice and rabbits, for example, produce multiple offspring within only a few short months of birth, compared to primates, who bear only 1 offspring and after many years of life. Thus, not one equation can apply to all.
  • There is no variable set in this calculation for environment; and environment plays a huge, huge role in whether or not a species or a given mutation continues. Making any type of calculation without taking into consideration the effects of the environment is tantamount to assuming that all items accelerate during free fall at 32 feet per second per second, regardless of whether we are on Earth or Jupiter or the moon.
  • Last but not least, the 50/50 is totally incorrect as mutations can be either beneficial, harmful or benign. IN fact, most mutations are benign. Red hair is a genetic mutation. Blue eyes is a genetic mutation. These mutations are benign. Each human being will possess, on the average, 60 genetic mutations: How Many Genetic Mutations Do I Have?
Try again.
 

shawn001

Well-Known Member
Intelligence has been defined in many different ways such as in terms of one's capacity for logic, abstract thought, understanding, self-awareness, communication, learning, emotional knowledge, memory, planning, creativity and problem solving. It can also be more generally described as the ability to perceive and/or retain knowledge or information and apply it to itself or other instances of knowledge or information creating referable understanding models of any size, density, or complexity, due to any conscious or subconscious imposed will or instruction to do so.


Humans defined that term about life on Earth and it too has to do with evolution.
 

shawn001

Well-Known Member
.wHAT IS A MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY OF EVOLUTION.
The sole mechanism of evolution is random changes of mutation, along with natural selection. Natural selection acts as a sieve, which gets rid of those mutations that it does not like. The problem with natural selection is that when nature run the changes through it, see the good mutations are not always kept or reused. Since changes in an ordered system will always change or decrease the amount of current order, then this continually shows that mutations are harmful to the organism. Since most are discarded.
For a good mutation to progress from a parent to an offspring and then to the next generation is statistically impossible. That is just say that a good mutation or a bad mutation has a 50-50 chance of passing on to the next generation say for 200 times So mathematically we can look at this as a 50-50 chance.
So mathematically that would be (1/2) 200th, or one chance out of 10 to the 60th power.
So for those who was have the numbers written out, that would be one chance in a trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion,; Or to make it more simple 1 , followed by 60 zeros. Quite a number to have good mutations to continue out.
So there had to be an intelligent creator to make everything work fully as it is designed to do. Which came first on the woodpecker. The claws to hold it on the tree,It would've starved because it can penetrate the wood, Or the neck muscles and the bill to penetrate the tree without the claws, It would've fell off and got eaten by something. Everything has to be there for it to survive cannot be a good mutation or bad mutations, but must be fully formed. The CREATOR is great


Right out of the ICR playbook. LOL

"
Discussion
There have been many other ways in which creationist writers have used probability arguments to refute evolutionism, especially the idea of random changes preserved, if beneficial, by natural selection. James Coppedge devoted almost an entire book, Evolution: Possible or Impossible (Zondervan, 1973, 276 pp.), to this type of approach. I have also used other probability-type arguments to the same end (see, e.g., Science and Creation, Master Books, pp. 161-201).

The first such book, so far as I know, to use mathematics and probability in refuting evolution was written by a pastor, W. A. Williams, way back in 1928. Entitled, Evolution Disproved, it made a great impression on me when I first read it about 1943, at a time when I myself was still struggling with evolution.

In fact, evolutionists themselves have attacked traditional Darwinism on the same basis (see the Wistar Institute Symposium, Mathematical Challenges to the Neo-Darwinian Interpretation of Evolution, 1967, 140 pp.). While these scientists did not reject evolution itself, they did insist that the Darwinian randomness postulate would never work.

The Mathematical Impossibility Of Evolution | The Institute for Creation Research

Those are some old references that is for sure. ;)


One of the great triumphs of modern evolutionary science, evo devo addresses many of the key questions that were unanswerable when Charles Darwin published On the Origin of Species in 1859, and Carroll has become a leader in this nascent field. Now a professor of molecular biology and genetics at the University of Wisconsin, he continues to decode the genes that control life’s physical forms and to explore how mutations in those genes drive evolutionary change. These days, Carroll also devotes increasing energy to telling the public about his field’s remarkable discoveries through a series of books—Endless Forms Most Beautiful, The Making of the Fittest, and the brand-new Remarkable Creatures. He spoke with DISCOVER senior editor Pamela Weintraub about what his work has taught him about Darwin, the nature of evolution, and how life really works.

It has been 150 years since Charles Darwin proposed his theory of evolution in On the Origin of Species, yet in some ways the concept of evolution seems more controversial than ever today. Why do you think that is?
It is a cultural issue, not a scientific one. On the science side our confidence grows yearly because we see independent lines of evidence converge. What we’ve learned from the fossil record is confirmed by the DNA record and confirmed again by embryology. But people have been raised to disbelieve evolution and to hold other ideas more precious than this knowledge. At the same time, we routinely rely on DNA to convict and exonerate criminals. We rely on DNA science for things like paternity. We rely on DNA science in the clinic to weigh our disease risks or maybe even to look at prognoses for things like cancer. DNA science surrounds us, but in this one realm we seem unwilling to accept its facts. Juries are willing to put people to death based upon the variations in DNA, but they’re not willing to understand the mechanism that creates that variation and shapes what makes humans different from other things. It’s a blindness. I think this is a phase that we’ll eventually get through. Other countries have come to peace with DNA. I don’t know how many decades or centuries it’s going to take us.


DNA Agrees With All the Other Science: Darwin Was Right | DiscoverMagazine.com
 

Bunyip

pro scapegoat
.wHAT IS A MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY OF EVOLUTION.
The sole mechanism of evolution is random changes of mutation, along with natural selection. Natural selection acts as a sieve, which gets rid of those mutations that it does not like. The problem with natural selection is that when nature run the changes through it, see the good mutations are not always kept or reused. Since changes in an ordered system will always change or decrease the amount of current order, then this continually shows that mutations are harmful to the organism. Since most are discarded.
For a good mutation to progress from a parent to an offspring and then to the next generation is statistically impossible. That is just say that a good mutation or a bad mutation has a 50-50 chance of passing on to the next generation say for 200 times So mathematically we can look at this as a 50-50 chance.
So mathematically that would be (1/2) 200th, or one chance out of 10 to the 60th power.
So for those who was have the numbers written out, that would be one chance in a trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion,; Or to make it more simple 1 , followed by 60 zeros. Quite a number to have good mutations to continue out.
So there had to be an intelligent creator to make everything work fully as it is designed to do. Which came first on the woodpecker. The claws to hold it on the tree,It would've starved because it can penetrate the wood, Or the neck muscles and the bill to penetrate the tree without the claws, It would've fell off and got eaten by something. Everything has to be there for it to survive cannot be a good mutation or bad mutations, but must be fully formed. The CREATOR is great
Wow. You must have dredged this old chestnut up from 50 years or so ago. This is 1960's TV evangelist apologetics.

One question though; How does this probability calculation you have for evolution compare to the probability you calculated for God just appearing out of nothing and creating an entire universe from scratch?

PROBABILITY is comparative right? So unless you have a calculation for the probability of God popping into existence from nothing and creating a universe -
then you can not compare the relative l Iikelyhoods can you?
 

Bunyip

pro scapegoat
PROBABILITY OR POSSIBILITY OR JUST IMPOSSSIBLE?

I would go with nearly impossible that evolution occurred without conscious intelligent guidance. For this and other reasons I think Nature has intelligent beings that worked for the creation of higher life forms. These beings are far beyond us in intelligence but not omniscient either. They did learn also through trial and error.
And what is the probability that these conscious intelligent guides occurred naturally? Or if they did not occur naturally, how was whatever designed your designers created?
 

Bunyip

pro scapegoat
To this top-notch post I would like to add that abiogenesis seems like even a longer shot than evolution to have created a system with complex DNA, etc..

But, by this time we know it is not solvable by debate.
And what sort of long shot is your alternative idea that some sort of conscious intelligent designer just manifests from nothing and starts creating stuff? What created it?
 

Curious George

Veteran Member
.wHAT IS A MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY OF EVOLUTION.
The sole mechanism of evolution is random changes of mutation, along with natural selection. Natural selection acts as a sieve, which gets rid of those mutations that it does not like. The problem with natural selection is that when nature run the changes through it, see the good mutations are not always kept or reused. Since changes in an ordered system will always change or decrease the amount of current order, then this continually shows that mutations are harmful to the organism. Since most are discarded.
For a good mutation to progress from a parent to an offspring and then to the next generation is statistically impossible. That is just say that a good mutation or a bad mutation has a 50-50 chance of passing on to the next generation say for 200 times So mathematically we can look at this as a 50-50 chance.
So mathematically that would be (1/2) 200th, or one chance out of 10 to the 60th power.
So for those who was have the numbers written out, that would be one chance in a trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion,; Or to make it more simple 1 , followed by 60 zeros. Quite a number to have good mutations to continue out.
So there had to be an intelligent creator to make everything work fully as it is designed to do. Which came first on the woodpecker. The claws to hold it on the tree,It would've starved because it can penetrate the wood, Or the neck muscles and the bill to penetrate the tree without the claws, It would've fell off and got eaten by something. Everything has to be there for it to survive cannot be a good mutation or bad mutations, but must be fully formed. The CREATOR is great
No..just no.

First your math is completely wrong- I am assuming you arrived at you 50/50 number by saying that reproduction involves one half of one parent chromosomes and another half of the other parent chromosomes. However this in itself completely disregards asexual reproduction. And .5^200=6.223^-61 not 1^-60, but I will assume you were rounding up.)

Second there are four classic mechanisms through which change occurs.

Third, You also must take into consideration numerous other common factors of change such as duplication and hybridization.

Fourth you are applying stats in the same way that loses people big money in Vegas. So, I wouldn't gamble anytime soon.

Lastly I would like to engage in a little thought experiment with you. Imagine you have 10 numbers in a hat. And you were to pick a number, write it down, and put the number back in the hat, then repeat 60 times While you can look at the number you generated and say "wow, the chance of me generating this exact number is so small God must have wanted me to generate such a number and there must be meaning behind it." Or you can realize that given the variables that you were going to generate a number regardless and this happened to be the number that you came up with. That "things could be different" is not a very good argument against evolution.
 

George-ananda

Advaita Vedanta, Theosophy, Spiritualism
Premium Member
And what sort of long shot is your alternative idea that some sort of conscious intelligent designer just manifests from nothing and starts creating stuff? What created it?
In the play of Brahman, the uncreated, there are myriads of beings each with their own purpose. There are beings from the subtlest plane down to the gross physical plane. All beings play their part in the cosmic play/drama of the divine.
 

Bunyip

pro scapegoat
In the play of Brahman, the uncreated, there are myriads of beings each with their own purpose. There are beings from the subtlest plane down to the gross physical plane. All beings play their part in the cosmic play/drama of the divine.
And where did they come from? Who designed Brahman?
 

George-ananda

Advaita Vedanta, Theosophy, Spiritualism
Premium Member
And where did they come from? Who designed Brahman?
I had said Brahman was the uncreated; pure consciousness. All else is Maya (Illusion) part of the play of Brahman. He separates Himself from Himself in the play (creating an incredible multitude of actors/beings) and then returns Himself to Himself in the end. In the end we'll know we were always Brahman. Brahman alone is real.
 

Bunyip

pro scapegoat
I had said Brahman was the uncreated; pure consciousness. All else is Maya (Illusion) part of the play of Brahman. He separates Himself from Himself in the play (creating an incredible multitude of actors/beings) and then returns Himself to Himself in the end. In the end we'll know we were always Brahman. Brahman alone is real.
And what is the probability of Brahma existing uncreated? Please show the math.
 

Yerda

Veteran Member
I would go with nearly impossible that evolution occurred without conscious intelligent guidance.
You might as well say everything occurs with conscious intelligent guidance then. The moon orbiting the Earth, the decay of radioactive isotopes, the earthquake in Nepal that killed thousands, the nitrogen cycle, the evolution of the wavefunction...
 

George-ananda

Advaita Vedanta, Theosophy, Spiritualism
Premium Member
And what is the probability of Brahma existing uncreated? Please show the math.
It comes from the explanations of those I have come to believe through objective consideration are great spiritual beings who have taken incarnation to instruct those willing to listen.
 

George-ananda

Advaita Vedanta, Theosophy, Spiritualism
Premium Member
You might as well say everything occurs with conscious intelligent guidance then. The moon orbiting the Earth, the decay of radioactive isotopes, the earthquake in Nepal that killed thousands, the nitrogen cycle, the evolution of the wavefunction...
Actually, everything that happens is scripted by the playwright Brahman. And the play will end in the Oneness of all consciousness being realized by all that during the play believe themselves to be separate.
 

McBell

Unbound
Actually, everything that happens is scripted by the playwright Brahman. And the play will end in the Oneness of all consciousness being realized by all that during the play believe themselves to be separate.
And yet you cannot even think about what the probability of Brahman being uncreated is?

What does this Brahman think of dishonesty?
 

Yerda

Veteran Member
Actually, everything that happens is scripted by the playwright Brahman. And the play will end in the Oneness of all consciousness being realized by all that during the play believe themselves to be separate.
Can Brahman help us do science? Or is the script withheld until the play is over?
 
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