Even if Jesus died much earlier than 30 AD, and there's no reason at all to believe that he did....
Well, I have to disagree with that. I think I've offered some good evidence and arguments for that case.
... it doesn't change anything. The setting in life that we're discussing would be the same if he lived 300 years earlier. People were still poor, illiterate, and lived in a culture where orality was favored.
I agree that the culture didn't change much during that period. But I don't think oral stories about Jesus could have arisen in such a short time (between crucifixion and Q or Mark maybe?). Not stories so formalized that the gospels could be seen as simply copying down oral recitations.
Another thing bothers me. It's about Paul and the churches which already existed during his persecution of Christians. Paul had his epiphany somewhere around 35 AD, yes? (If you disagree, could you give me your best guess for a date?) So how could there be established churches if Jesus wasn't even dead yet? Especially since -- as everyone here seems to agree -- Jesus didn't make a big splash? Why would churches already be established by then if Jesus wasn't a big deal in Jerusalem?
That is a big timing problem, isn't it?
The more I think on it, the more convinced I'm becoming that any historical Jesus must have lived long before the time claimed for him.
I don't see that as any kind of problem, but I'm not invested in Christianity, so I don't know if Christians would be bothered by it.