The Situation in Egypt

[LuisDantas]

I'm not denying that he was heavy-handed either but even if order comes at a cost it is better than having Islamic rule. But anybody who thinks that something good will come of events in Egypt is not thinking clearly. Perhaps they cannot think.
Mubarak, whether he comes or goes, is identified with everything that Islamists hate.
Not because he caused it, or is even in any way responsible for it, but because they cannot conceive of having personal responsibility themselves for their miserable conditions.

You are implying that no situation can be worse than Islamic rule, claiming that nothing good can come from this situation, and that Islamic people are by definition incapable of being personally responsible.

Even assuming those premises as true, it still follows that we must do our best to allow constructive change to come. If for no other reason, because letting hate breed unchallenged is simply not safe.

 

[LuisDantas]

What makes you think the millions of Egyptians who are risking life and limb to democratize Egypt and obtain some of the basic human rights most of us enjoy will happily accept a new tyrant? Now that they know they have the power to change things, why wouldn't they keep pushing for what they want?

They will. But it is not clear, at least to me, that they won't do it in a destructive way or even engage in ethnic internal strife once Mubarak is done with.

 

[kai]

You are implying that no situation can be worse than Islamic rule, claiming that nothing good can come from this situation, and that Islamic people are by definition incapable of being personally responsible.

Even assuming those premises as true,

it still follows that we must do our best to allow constructive change to come. I

f for no other reason, because letting hate breed unchallenged is simply not safe.

Indeed we must support people who wish change and to take part in a democratic process. who ever comes out on top it will be the will of the people even if we perceive it to be the wrong decision we would have to accept that decision and work to try and help them.

 

[Kathryn]

Just an aside note - Egypt's unemployment rate has hovered around 9% for a couple of years now, down from 12% in 2003.
Egypt Unemployment rate - Economy

That's lower than many areas of the United States, and about that of the European Union.

 

[England my lionheart]

Some shooting in the square where the protesters are camping,at least two dead,Mubarak refusing to budge,this isn't over by a long way

 

[Bismillah]

Police ID cards seized on pro-Mubarak "protesters" inciting violence and injuring people in Tahrir Square.

?????? ???? ???? ???????? ??????... on Twitpic

ID Cards of Arrested Thugs in Tahrir Square February 2nd - a set on Flickr

 

[Alceste]

Tyrants generally do not advertise the fact until their power is assured. By that time, it won't matter what the Egyptian people want.

That doesn't make much sense. Right now, this very minute, Egyptians can be tortured to death for criticizing the government and yet they are out in the streets in the millions, criticizing the government while Mubarak's thugs try to whip, beat and shoot them into submission. What makes you think that they'll stand up to him, but not to the next guy?

 

[kai]

I think the wave has broke in Egypt. the army didn't come out in support of the protesters and no one is going to overthrow Mubarak without the army.

 

[Alceste]

Mubarak and other middle eastern leaders have to take things very carefully when modernising or bringing in democratic reforms. They all fear popular revolutions and most of all, revolutions that are manipulated by their neighbours. the pan-Arabic and pan-Islamic ideologies are a danger for the authoritarian rulers like Mubarak.

The West still prefers to do business with these regimes, and hopes for their gradual liberalization because of our near total dependency on oil.We are held hostage in a way our need for Oil and we need to decrease that need as soon as possible.

We've started a business we can do from home (no travel) and started growing and foraging our own food (fishing to follow). If the business does well enough, we're going to build an off grid home. Can't do much more than that. That whole shower of mentally deficient foot-draggers running all our countries can get stuffed as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Alceste]

Just an aside note - Egypt's unemployment rate has hovered around 9% for a couple of years now, down from 12% in 2003.
Egypt Unemployment rate - Economy

That's lower than many areas of the United States, and about that of the European Union.

Then we are getting a sneak peek at what to expect when the right wing finally manages to do away with social security.

 

[Luminous]

I think the wave has broke in Egypt. the army didn't come out in support of the protesters and no one is going to overthrow Mubarak without the army.

This is a sad truth :sad:
the UN has an army doesn't it?
and so does Israel.
hmmmmm =/ and so do we.

 

[Alceste]

They will. But it is not clear, at least to me, that they won't do it in a destructive way or even engage in ethnic internal strife once Mubarak is done with.

It's not clear to me either, but nevertheless countries that I don't feel very concerned about, such as the US, Israel and the UK are FAR more destructive than Egypt has ever been, or could ever be. I'm just trying to maintain a sense of proportion.

 

[Bismillah]

I think the wave has broke in Egypt. the army didn't come out in support of the protesters and no one is going to overthrow Mubarak without the army.

Yes because all of the recent concessions by Mubarak were issued at gunpoint? Ask someone whether they would have believed a single person would be willing to protest Mubarak in Tahrir square....

That's lower than many areas of the United States, and about that of the European Union.

Is it in America or the EU where 4 out of 10 people live under the poverty line?

 

[LuisDantas]

Is it in America or the EU where 4 out of 10 people live under the poverty line?

Yes, there is that. Being recorded as "employed" does not necessarily mean much, and it doesn't really follow that it means the same as it would in the USA or the EU. I know people to probably spend more going to work then they earn as salary.

More and more, I find myself wishing true nation-building were attempted in some places. Not necessarily the Middle East, but maybe Rwandha or Haiti.

 

[Caladan]

It's been my observation that democracies rarely arise without a quite a bit of effort on the part of the exploited and oppressed population.

By all means. as long as they do it as normal human beings, as God intended. using their heads. doing it legally if you will.

You fail to realize that many of these people have no jobs to go to, and there is no social safety net. They can either oust their government or starve.

I've travelled Egypt, more than one time. the last time was last year. in which for the first time I travelled all the way from Cairo to Aswan and Southern Egypt near Sudan. I've observed all the poverty, all the simple agriculture methods, all the poor towns and villages, I roamed them, and asked any possible question of economy I could think of from my Egyptian tour guide.
I think I realize the situation in Egypt more than people who encourage a mob.

A goverment that has allowed their country to fall into such a state has done NOTHING of long term benefit to "stability". Not unless you consider a civilian uprising consisting of millions of desperate, angry people, a large percentage of whom are undereducated and illiterate and most of whom have a major beef with the most heavily armed bully in the region "stability".

Mubarak rose to power as commander of the Egyptian Air Force during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. this has been by far the worst war for the Israeli Air Force. the simple tactics took down Israeli pilots from the skies in numbers we are not used to.
When he was serving as a vice president, Mubarak witnessed the assassination of Egyptian president Sadat in the early 80s, Sadat was assassinated by Islamic radicals who served in the Egyptian army.
Mubarak took his lessons very well from the threat of radical Islamists.
His economic reforms which have began about 7 years ago achieved outstanding results, as the GDP of Egypt more than doubled itself in only 4 years. the economy was progressing very nicely.
the troubles we see now in Egypt is because of the poor people who do not benefit from this progress. the gap between the poor and the rich if you will.
however, idealizing the whole concept is tiring. look at many other nations, the gap between the rich and the poor is almost a standard problem.
Its not a reason for people to go Commandos instead of puking blood in their wheat field, so that their little daughter can study in a university in Cairo one day.
now that's a long term planning. going out to the streets and venting your anger like a medieval mob.

Egypt's current trouble was foreseeable and avoidable. Whatever his intentions or achievements, Mubarak has failed utterly. He's been so busy kowtowing to Israel and the US for personal gain that Egypt has finally fallen into total chaos. And still he won't get out! He prefers to send thousands of paid thugs out to physically assault protesters! He could have trotted off and everyone would have gone home happy.

Funny you say that. because while initially Egypt was shunned down by the Arab league and Arab powers for its treaty with Israel. the Arab league and nations came to terms with it and accepted Egypt back into the club.
the fact that a Canadian citizen is frowning on cooperation between two Mid eastern nations, Israel and Egypt, and their efforts and abilities to work with the Americans are irrelevant for clear thinking Egyptians and Israelis, who are thousands of miles away. I am more interested by what the Arab league has to say.

 

[Bismillah]

By all means. as long as they do it as normal human beings, as God intended. using their heads. doing it legally if you will.

I don't think even you know what this statement really means. Let alone your use of the word legally, perhaps it was lost on you that Mubarak has been subverting law to his own pleasure this past thirty odd years?

I think I realize the situation in Egypt more than people who encourage a mob.

Appeal to authority.

Mubarak took his lessons very well from the threat of radical Islamists.

Hardly, the MB became a mainstream political party a long time ago. Mubarak did his homework on how to subjugate a population for thirty years, I'll give him credit for that.

People tend to forget that the MB that was popular in Syria, before its annihilation, or in Gaza for example is a very distinct and different breed.

His economic reforms which have began about 7 years ago achieved outstanding results, as the GDP of Egypt more than doubled itself in only 4 years. the economy was progressing very nicely.
the troubles we see now in Egypt is because of the poor people who do not benefit from this progress. the gap between the poor and the rich if you will.
however, idealizing the whole concept is tiring. look at many other nations, the gap between the rich and the poor is almost a standard problem.

What are you talking about? A universal problem?

The difference between Syria and Egypt is exactly this. Both countries are ruled by fairly autocratic military regimes that have not hessitated in the past to brutally crackdown on political dissidents.

The difference is that in Syria 1 out of ten people live below the poverty line while in Egypt that number is 4 out of ten. The difference being that Mubarak cut basic subsidies that the poor depended on and that university graduates could not find employment.

These protests were a long time in the making when the gap between the Egyptian upper class and the vast numbers of poor continued to widen. They were a long time in the making when Mubarak's economic reforms fell flat on their faces and he sat idly grooming his son for hereditary secession.

Syrians are, by and large, proud of their country and satisfied with their success and ability to not back down to Western pressure, Egyptians are not.

going out to the streets and acting like a medieval mob

Funny because it was these protesters who managed to accumulate upwards of two million people without any violence until Mubarak's henchmen beat them unprovoked, destroyed national museum artifacts thousands of years old, and dressed as plainclothes pro-government supporters and rained bullets and firebombs from the roofs.

I know who is responsible for the medieval mentality and you surely enough are doing your best to avoid them.

the fact that a Canadian citizen is frowning on cooperation between two Mid eastern nations, Israel and Egypt, and their efforts and abilities to work with the Americans are irrelevant for clear thinking Egyptians and Israelis, who are thousands of miles away.

Funny you should say that while particularly avoiding what exactly they think.

If these protests succeed, we shall know very quickly what exactly Egyptians think of Mubarak's treaty.

Of course it has been a huge success for Israel to cut back on its military spending patrolling the Egyptian border and a relief that Mubarak and his thugs were all to complacent in helping them imprison Gaza.

 

[Kathryn]

Is it in America or the EU where 4 out of 10 people live under the poverty line?

Not sure - I think it's the US.

Ahhh, yes...the good ol' days. I lived "below the poverty line" in the US for about 15 years of my adult life. During that time I had cable TV, the internet, I owned my own home (a new home by the way, in a decent neighborhood), had a fully stocked kitchen, drove a nice, albeit used, Volvo (oh, and before the Volvo I drove a used Mercedes!), and had a closet full of clothes.

Sure, the cars were used when I bought them, the house was small, the TV was old, the pantry was supplemented by WIC items and government cheese, and some of the clothes came from Goodwill.

But my point is that "poor" in some countries would be considered wealthy in others.

We could revolt in the streets I guess, and demand a better government (lord knows we need one), but we might end up more like Mexico than Sweden.

Revolution is a gamble.

 

[kai]

Not sure - I think it's the US.

Ahhh, yes...the good ol' days. I lived "below the poverty line" in the US for about 15 years of my adult life. During that time I had cable TV, the internet, I owned my own home (a new home by the way, in a decent neighborhood), had a fully stocked kitchen, drove a nice, albeit used, Volvo (oh, and before the Volvo I drove a used Mercedes!), and had a closet full of clothes.

Sure, the cars were used when I bought them, the house was small, the TV was old, the pantry was supplemented by WIC items and government cheese, and some of the clothes came from Goodwill.

But my point is that "poor" in some countries would be considered wealthy in others.

We could revolt in the streets I guess, and demand a better government (lord knows we need one), but we might end up more like Mexico than Sweden.

Revolution is a gamble.

Ha ha i was going to say there's poor! and there's poor!

 

[Caladan]

Appeal to authority.

Appeal to authority is a wonderful thing.
When I want to get serious information about Stonehenge and other megalithic sites across the British islands and Western Europe. I do not go to the neo-Druids, or UFOlogists, I go to British archaeologists, and specifically archaeologists who mastered their knowledge of Neolithic and Bronze Age Britain.
When I want information about Egyptian economy I use the best tour guides to give me the best information after living there for 40+ years and fitting so well into that economy that they now educate and give information to foreigners travelling and studying their country, I do not go to people who live in North America and have bizarre political ideas which seem to belong to the 1960's crowds, you know the crowds that didn't know what to do when Ellsberg has published the Pentagon Papers, and just went DUH when he did. I will not go to 'Setians', or Kemetics to get objective and modern information about Egyptian history and archaeology either, I would go to the same tour guide who has laboured to master his knowledge of Egyptian history, and languages without strange romantic baggage.
as for the rest of your reply. you need to refine it, because it would be a great study case in a political science class of, how NOT to do things.

 

[Bismillah]

Kathryn: The poverty line I was implying is living on less than two dollars a day, something that I think would be almost impossible in America. Even the most down on his luck homeless man surely collects more than that in a day right?

Appeal to authority is a wonderful thing.

It's also gives warrant to gloss a point that makes an assertion and validates it with supposed superiority.

Because being oblivious to the fact that these protests are not connected to the failure of Mubarak's economic reforms asks the question if it is deliberate and whether it accomplishes a supposed motive.