Fair answer. Admittedly I am extremely vested in trans issues. But trans women being able to play in women's sports is at the very very very very very very very very very very very very bottom of that list of trans issues I care about. Literally every other trans issue is more important. Every time I see this debate its usually just used as a crowbar to start the conversation against trans rights more broadly.
I agree with your last point.
Small amount of background you can freely ignore if you wish.
I coach girls junior basketball at a reasonably high level in Australia. There has been a recent controversy over a transgender athlete trying to get permission to play at the sub elite level (ie. Second highest league in Australia - NBL1)
It's made for some fairly ugly spats between Australian basketballers like Andrew Bogut (on the anti side) and Anneli Maley (on the pro side).
In general, my sympathies and the side I'd like to be on is the pro side. I love local community sports at its best. I've seen what it's done for my daughter's in terms of body image and what their heroes look like, and I feel so much more secure in them idolising strong, physical women. I can only imagine the positive impact a trans role model could have for a whole raft of kids.
At the same time, I'm heavily involved in the sport and every step up the ladder is competitive. If a trans athlete makes the sub elite team, or an elite team, that's someone else who doesn't. You're talking about a couple of hundred spaces in Australia at the sub elite level, maybe half that at the elite level.
So, I'm in favour of trans inclusion at lower levels, where athletes are graded based on ability, where it isn't their livelihood, and where there are more spots (upto state level basically). But I struggle to accept it to some degree past that. The best I can come to is that it should be decided case by case. But there are lots of things which make that somewhat less than ideal, including the controversy that will probably provoke repetitively, and the uncertain position it leaves trans athletes in.
It also leaves me loosely 'aligned' with what I'd see as dark forces at times, something which I find quite distasteful. But that's where I am currently. Still trying to educate myself on the issue, at least within the limited frame of basketball.