Oh great. Another
argument from ignorance logical fallacist. What school did you graudate from, and why didn't it cover logical fallacies?
I went to a school which obviously did a better job of teaching reading comprehension than yours.
There is no ignorance here, and certainly no argument from it. I have answers to those questions which I will happily provide. You are the one claiming that the referenced predictions had nothing to do with Natural Selection, not I. I would like for you to explain to me how they do not, since they are quite easily explained through that process.
For reference:
- Based on homologies with African apes, Darwin predicted that human ancestors arose in Africa. That prediction has been supported by fossil and genetic evidence (Ingman et al. 2000).
Without Natural Selection, through your position, how could human variation exist?
You inability to do explain this will highlight how our most common features are a product of their environment, driven by the process of natural selection.
What does any of this have to do with tacking by disjunction?
Nothing. It has everything to do with Natural Selection, however, which was your first challenge.
You said that mutations have nothing to do with Natural Selection. I provided you with an array of sources which state otherwise.
You're the one bringing Tracking by Disjunction into a biological conversation as an attempt to deflect any line of questioning that you don't like.
Tacking by disjunction is not computer science terminology. It is the problem that to the extent that finding F supports theory T, it also supports theory T&F for any statement F. For example, any confirmation of the theory "The universe is orderly" also supports the theory "The Universe is Orderly and the Christian God has made it so." Your problem is showing how evidence that supports Darwinism, defined as all parts of the theory that are not natural selection & natural selection cannot be shown to support the other parts of Darwinism
not including the theory of natural selection. A few Bayesian equations will be sufficient.
So you want to attack confirmation paradoxes - that's fine. But why don't you just say that? Other than your citation, 5 pages worth of google links refer only to computer science and basic problems with the equating of unequal things.
I always find it interesting in conversations like this that instead of directly address the thing that is being addressed (instead of positively arguing for your position) that people simply try to logically defeat the standard.
Either way:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raven_paradox
.. suppose that there are {\displaystyle N}
objects that might be seen at any moment, of which {\displaystyle r}
are ravens and {\displaystyle b}
are black, and that the {\displaystyle N}
objects each have probability {\displaystyle {\tfrac {1}{N}}}
of being seen. Let {\displaystyle H_{i}}
be the hypothesis that there are {\displaystyle i}
non-black ravens, and suppose that the hypotheses {\displaystyle H_{1},H_{2},...,H_{r}}
are initially equiprobable. Then, if we happen to see a black raven, the Bayes factor in favour of {\displaystyle H_{0}}
is
{\displaystyle {\tfrac {r}{N}}{\Big /}{\text{average}}\left({\tfrac {r-1}{N}},{\tfrac {r-2}{N}},...\ ,{\tfrac {1}{N}}\right)\ =\ {\tfrac {2r}{r-1}}}
i.e. about 2 if the number of ravens in existence is known to be large. But the factor if we see a white shoe is only
{\displaystyle {\tfrac {N-b}{N}}{\Big /}{\text{average}}\left({\tfrac {N-b-1}{N}},{\tfrac {N-b-2}{N}},...\ ,\max(0,{\tfrac {N-b-r}{N}})\right)}
{\displaystyle \ =\ {\frac {N-b}{\max \left(N-b-{\tfrac {r}{2}}-{\tfrac {1}{2}}\ ,\ {\tfrac {1}{2}}(N-b-1)\right)}}}
and this exceeds unity by only about {\displaystyle r/(2N-2b)}
if {\displaystyle N-b}
is large compared to {\displaystyle r}
. Thus the weight of evidence provided by the sight of a white shoe is positive, but is small if the number of ravens is known to be small compared to the number of non-black objects.[11]
And secondly, why are you trying so hard to argue against Natural Selection have any predictive quality if you so easily write off positive predictions as a confirmation paradox?
It seems to me that if you actually believed what you wrote then you would have no problem factually accepting that Natural Selection makes predictions about the observable biological world and that sometimes that predictions are thoroughly supported. After all, even if every single prediction was proven to be accurate, that wouldn't mean anything, right?
Orange-breasted falcons (Falco deiroleucus), hawk eagles (Nisaetus cirrhatus) and harp eagles (Harpia harpyja). Humans also prey upon the birds.
The is a big difference between mild predation and direct dependence in an ecosystem. The birds that you're referencing are not vital to the feeding patterns of their avian counterparts. Their over-abundance or disappearance from the diet of those predatory birds would have very little affect on the lives of those birds because their wide range of food sources would continue to sustain them. 100,000 physical changes to Macaws will not make much a difference in the lives of the predators that you listed. This is a prediction of Natural Selection that has been heavily supported through observations in not just the Ara birds and their predator/prey realtionship to the world around them, but in other species as well.
Humans are sometimes eaten by lions. We are prey to lions. Has our overall development been hampered too much by that occasional relationship? Has the development of the lion been dependent on their predatory relationship to us?
Choose any predator/prey combination based on mild predation that you like and this position will still be supported. This is a prediction made by Natural Selection.
So, again, you were mistaken.
This claim confuses the difference between the
ontological status of species and epistemological status of the species
concept.
Deflection again...
Pick any definition that you like - any accepted definition anywhere - we've seen speciation occur at all of those levels. That's the point.
Attempting to brush that off because you don't think there's a universal definition for what makes a species ultimately does not matter.
Provide more detail about what I should try again.
Try again to fend off the fact that speciation occurs. Changes in populations occur, due to a whole host of forces, under the umbrella of natural selection. They occur often enough, and frequently enough, that they can completely change an organism into something other that what it once was. Call it what you will - this happens and is naturally derived.
Completely irrelevant. The point is that confirmations of giant races of humans, even if found, would not necessarily demonstrate that the Bible were true. Cherry picking Bible verses proves nothing, especially since we are speaking hypothetically.
You are absolutely correct - It would however confirm a prediction, even if indirect, that would stand alone in our greater body of knowledge. Other than in fairy tales or other mythological sources, no scientific endeavor has predicted that humans used to be 20 feet tall and live to be 600 years old. If that could be confirmed, then it would be an accurate prediction made by an otherwise fictional tale. The accuracy of that prediction would at least lend some credence to the notion that other predictions made in that book of wonders could also, possibly, be accurate.
Do you really not agree with that?
No, the argument is that supposed confirmations of natural selection, even if it could be proved true, are irrelevant because:
A) The confirmations are invariably tacking by disjunction;
B) The confirmations are not ones that a person unacquainted with the theory would expect; and
C) Confirmations, in general, are problematic as they are examples of
affirming the consequent.
Using your current method of thinking, name me something that
can't be picked apart by your understanding of tracking by disjunction.
I imagine you are also aware of the inverse of this argument, right? Nothing that you say in support of yourself really means anything, since confirmations are worthless. You see how that works, don't you? You're own position can't be confirmed because you're just tracking by disjunction.
Well, you're right about one thing. Math is not science. There is, for example, a 360-page proof that 1+1=2. Science, on the other hand, isn't in the business of proving things.
Yes it is.
http://euclid.trentu.ca/math/sb/misc/mathsci.html
Also,
science
noun
1.
a branch of knowledge or study dealing with a body of facts or truths systematically arranged and showing the operation of general laws:
the mathematical sciences.
2.
systematic knowledge of the physical or material world gained throughobservation and experimentation.
3.
any of the branches of natural or
physical science.
4.
systematized knowledge in general.
5.
knowledge, as of facts or principles; knowledge gained by systematicstudy.
6.
a particular branch of knowledge.
7.
skill, especially reflecting a precise application of facts or principles;proficiency.