War in the Ukraine?

[sandandfoam]

My understanding is that the Russian population of Crimea were expecting to be persecuted by the 'nationalist fascists' who 'seized' power in Ukraine and that they welcome the Russian troops.

Putin is no better or worse than Obama or any of the rest of them.

 

[Vouthon]

11:46: French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has condemned Russia's actions as unacceptable: "The Russians consider that countries which belonged to their empire at one point or another should not be outside a certain amount of their control. In the Crimea case, they already have a base in Sevastopol and considering what happened in Ukraine - the overthrow, or at least the departure of Yanukovych - they want to get their hands back on Crimea. Obviously, as far as international law is concerned, it is unacceptable," he told French radio.

BBC News - LIVE: Ukraine crisis: Grip tightens

 

[Vouthon]

BBC:

Russia's Black Sea Fleet has given Ukrainian forces in Crimea until 5:00 local time (03:00 GMT) on Tuesday to surrender or face an all-out assault, according to Ukrainian defense ministry sources quoted by Interfax-Ukraine news agency. "If by 5am tomorrow morning they do not surrender a real assault will begin on units and sections of the Ukrainian armed forces all over Crimea," defense ministry officials are quoted as saying. So far there is no further confirmation of the ultimatum from other sources.

If corroborated and proven to be true, this is completely illegal under international law and on ethical grounds. I mean Crimea has not legally seceded from Ukraine. There has been no due political process, no referendum, no legislative means adopted. Nothing. Russia has simply sent its own troops into the country on trumped up charges, making ample use of the fact that they already had a military presence in the country through the Sevastopol fleet. This ultimatum is without foundation in law. It is like the law of the jungle being resurrected in a 21st century world with transnational and supranational legal norms. Kerry was right, this is 19th century jus ad bellum.

Telling another country's army to surrender and essentially call quits over their own territory under the threat of an annihilation disgusts me.

Obviously, Ukraine is in a no win situation. The West is in no way going to get militarily involved with Russia, risking a broader conflagration between nuclear superpowers. That is out of the question, only diplomatic channels are possible. But why would Putin feel obligated to listen to soft power politics about economic sanctions, freezes, international disdain and seclusion? I feel very sorry for Ukraine. It looks like they are going to be fed to the wolves...or should I make that the "wolf"....

 

[Vouthon]

Latest:

15:58: The press office for the Ukraine defence ministry in Crimea confirms to the BBC that an ultimatum from Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been delivered. The Russian naval forces are said to have given Ukraine's forces in the region until 05:00 local time (03:00 GMT) to surrender or else face an all-out assault.

 

[GoodbyeDave]

My understanding is that the Russian population of Crimea were expecting to be persecuted by the 'nationalist fascists' who 'seized' power in Ukraine and that they welcome the Russian troops.

And who told you that? How many of the ethnic Russians in the Ukraine have you polled?

Putin is no better or worse than Obama or any of the rest of them.

Putin was a KGB officer in East Germany, working with the Stasi who were murdering and killing. If you think Obama is on a par with them, I'd like to know why. On second thoughts, I don't think I do!

 

[sandandfoam]

Putin was a KGB officer in East Germany, working with the Stasi who were murdering and killing. If you think Obama is on a par with them, I'd like to know why. On second thoughts, I don't think I do!

How many has the US administration under Obama killed in Drone strikes?
What about British collusion with Loyalist paramilitaries? How about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Being a 'world leader' is a dirty business that seems to attract psychos

And who told you that? How many of the ethnic Russians in the Ukraine have you polled?

I read the Russian media.

 

[Copernicus]

Hey Copernicus any chance NATO will get involved against Russia?

Not militarily, but the countries formerly dominated by the Soviet Union are understandably nervous about this. I expect that there will be some heightened state of alert in most of them over this.

If so are there any European countries strong enough to really challenge Russia or would this have to boil down once again to America stepping in?

A war against Russia is unthinkable, because it could possibly lead to a nuclear holocaust. Both the US and Russia would effectively destroy each other and the rest of the planet. This is only about Russia invading another country. To put it in perspective, the US (with the support of the UK and nominal support from some allies) invaded a country on the other side of the world that had not attacked it and posed no threat--Saddam Hussein's Iraq. NATO had earlier attacked Afghanistan.

What is happening in Ukraine is somewhat different, because Putin's objective is to recover the lost territory of Crimea for Russia and to bully the rest of Ukraine (and the West) into staying out of the EU and NATO. He wants Ukraine to be under Russian control, and he is probably going to succeed in making that happen, at least in the near term. The rest of the world can impose sanctions on Russia, but they aren't likely to be very effective or to last very long. Most countries will probably end up acquiescing to what Putin wants. At least, that seems to me to be what Putin has calculated. He is playing a dangerous game, and Russians have a history of miscalculations in these kind of power games.

 

[Knight of Albion]

The danger of brinkmanship and having troops facing off against each other is that it only takes one localised incident to take place and the whole situation immediately escalates.

Military intervention by the West is unthinkable. European Union countries are downplaying the use of sanctions as they have huge trade agreements with Russia and crucially Russia supplies a large percentage of Western Europe's gas supply. The loss of either would have a disasterous impact on not just the European but the global economy.

The most 'serious' suggestion thus far is having Russia expelled from the World Cup in Brazil this year....

 

[Copernicus]

Europe is in a very difficult spot. Most of its gas supply runs through western Ukraine from Belarus and Russia. So Europe needs the cooperation of both the western Ukraine and Russia to avoid a severe economic meltdown. Putin knows this. It is his ultimate leverage in this power grab.

 

[MD]

Europe is in a very difficult spot. Most of its gas supply runs through western Ukraine from Belarus and Russia. So Europe needs the cooperation of both the western Ukraine and Russia to avoid a severe economic meltdown. Putin knows this. It is his ultimate leverage in this power grab.

Should America send in an aircraft carrier group to the black sea or would that just be a recipe for disaster?

 

[Penumbra]

So far, statements by Obama of the US have specifically distanced the idea of military intervention.

"If in fact they continue on the current trajectory they’re on, then we are examining a whole series of steps — economic, diplomatic — that will isolate Russia and will have a negative impact on Russia’s economy and status in the world." -Obama

Obama said he is "deeply concerned", he said it's a violation of sovereignty, and he said the US would withdraw from the June G8 Summit which will be held in Russia. Kerry said said it's an act of aggression, that you don't do this in the 21st century, etc.

So it's pretty clear that whatever else they're talking about in their meetings, they're being careful to never mention anything about a possible military intervention, even as an option.

 

[Copernicus]

Should America send in an aircraft carrier group to the black sea or would that just be a recipe for disaster?

There is no military option for us. It would just make the situation more tense for us to move military forces closer to Ukraine. I think that Obama is doing the best that anyone could with this situation. He is trying to find diplomatic solutions. Unfortunately, Europe is not really in a position to push back against Putin, so our options are severely limited. Left to solve this on their own, the Europeans would wring their hands and look the other way. They can't afford to come to the aid of Ukrainian nationalists.

In fact, one really scary possibility for Europe is that Russia attacks, and the Ukrainians blow up the pipelines as a last act of revenge. That would screw both Europe and Russia for a while, because most of the fuel supply runs through territory held by the nationalists. I don't know how quickly the Russians could restore those pipelines, if they had to, but they probably have made it a priority to secure them as soon as possible, in the event that they go for a full scale invasion.

 

[MD]

There is no military option for us. It would just make the situation more tense for us to move military forces closer to Ukraine. I think that Obama is doing the best that anyone could with this situation. He is trying to find diplomatic solutions. Unfortunately, Europe is not really in a position to push back against Putin, so our options are severely limited. Left to solve this on their own, the Europeans would wring their hands and look the other way. They can't afford to come to the aid of Ukrainian nationalists.

In fact, one really scary possibility for Europe is that Russia attacks, and the Ukrainians blow up the pipelines as a last act of revenge. That would screw both Europe and Russia for a while, because most of the fuel supply runs through territory held by the nationalists. I don't know how quickly the Russians could restore those pipelines, if they had to, but they probably have made it a priority to secure them as soon as possible, in the event that they go for a full scale invasion.

Why wouldn't a couple of aircraft carriers show the Russians not to mess with America's allies? I think it might be a better option to not look weak to Putin and show the full power of America's military, as a sort of display. Obama should send a 'Don't f-- with me' message, no?

 

[MD]

WSJ on Ukraine: Send US Ships to Black Sea

 

[esmith]

Should America send in an aircraft carrier group to the black sea or would that just be a recipe for disaster?

And do what with it, steam around in circles. There is zero military solution to the situation.

 

[esmith]

Why wouldn't a couple of aircraft carriers show the Russians not to mess with America's allies? I think it might be a better option to not look weak to Putin and show the full power of America's military, as a sort of display. Obama should send a 'Don't f-- with me' message, no?

Seems that you have forgotten the Syria debacle, the US already looks weak. Also the Black Sea would be a death trap for any carrier group.

 

[Copernicus]

I'm very much in agreement with esmith on this. There is zero that the US can do with its formidable military. We need smart politicians and diplomats for this one. The military is always a last resort.

But I am beginning to rethink how this is coming down. Time World has a very interesting article on the reaction within Russia and among Russia's allies that suggests Putin may have seriously miscalculated: 4 Reasons Why Putin is Already Losing in Ukraine. This article suggests that Putin's aggression may not be as popular in Russia as I thought it would be. I still think that his assimilation of Crimea will be popular, but Russians are more knowledgeable about the world than they used to be. They don't want to return to the old Cold War politics. So this is not necessarily something that modern Russia wants to engage in, even if an old Cold War veteran like Putin sees it differently. More importantly, allies like Belarus and Kazakhstan are mindful of the fact that they have large populations of Russian speakers. So Putin's new policy of being free to intervene militarily in neighboring countries with such large populations is giving them pause for thought. China has expressed mild disapproval, and Belarus has actually recognized the new Ukrainian nationalist government. So there is some reason to hope that Putin may be influenced to rethink how far he can go with this.

 

[MD]

I still think the United States should send a contingent of stealth bombers to Turkey or put troops in Germany on high alert. It will send a clear message to Putin that the military might of the US cannot go unchallenged. Then again I was only 5 when the cold war ended, so what do I know

 

[shadowcat]

I still think the United States should send a contingent of stealth bombers to Turkey or put troops in Germany on high alert. It will send a clear message to Putin that the military might of the US cannot go unchallenged. Then again I was only 5 when the cold war ended, so what do I know

Great. And what is going to be the first country that is destroyed because of this? Mine. :sad4:

I don't think military is an option here, at least not now. You should always try to find a diplomatic solution for all this. Sending more troops will only intensify the conflict and more countries will become involved in this.

 

[sandandfoam]

Given the behaviour of the USA in South America over many decades I cannot imagine it has any moral authority to be lecturing Russia about respect for the sovereignty of neighbouring countries.