So...On a scale of zero to ten, zero representing- probable/not suspicious...ten being improbable/highly suspicious...how would you rate your response to all horses bar one falling and failing to complete...
I'm guessing "It's an unlikely event" would make it somewhere between 1 and 5?
"an unlikely" and unusual event.....but nothing that would cause suspicion.?
Yes? No?
Thank you for being the first one to provide any kind of answer to the simple question
To tell you the truth, I don't know much about horse racing, but assuming that cases of horses falling are rare and independent from one another (so that one horse falling doesn't freak other horses out, for instance), let's say three out of ten for the sake of argument. The steward should be suspecious, but he should also realize that when the number of horse races increases, it will get increasingly improbable for such events not to occur. So unless there's evidence of foul play, this was in fact just something to tell your fellow stewards about over a cold glass of beer.
Might I humbly suggest...Go to your nearest Casino,bet upon and roll 'cats eyes' three, four, five, six times in a row... then advise Security- "no matter how infinitely unlikely the event is, that's completely irrelevant and any event after the fact is just as likely as any other, no matter how much significance you ascribe to it post festum"
And my hearty best wishes with that.:yes:
Snake eyes? Anyway, that's not the case... The game is structured and has rules, the "significance" is already there before I play the game. But if you were to ask someone what the chances were of you having rolled a six, a five, a five, a three and a six in that exact order, the only response you would probably get would be a blank confused stare. But 65536 is actually the maximum number of rows per sheet in excel (prior to 2007), omg! And my coffee stain looks exactly like Che-Quevara. Tho wholly unlikely events, yet - makes no difference whatsoever how unlikely they are.
Now, if you're a casino manager that oversees tens or hundreds of casinos (let's say there are suche people), where every day hundreds of thousands of dice rolls are "rolled" every day, you shouldn't be surprised when you get a weekly report stating that on two seperate instances, snake eyes were rolled four times in a row. In fact, you should expect it.
If you want some numbers, rolling snake-eyes three times in a row
on your very next three rolls is about a 46.000:1 event, whereas the frequency of a royal flush in poker can be expressed with 650.000:1 odds. While I have not had any experience playing dice, I do have plenty of experience playing poker - includig winning a hand with a royal flush. Nobody freaked out though...
The royal flush is the strongest holding in poker (texas hold'em at least) as per the rules, yet any combination of five cards is just as unlikely as a specific royal flush. Like - being dealt exactly 3c 5d Ac 6s 9s is just as unlikely as being dealt a spade royal flush. Yet, since we did not assign any significance to 3c5dAc6s9s prior to it having been dealt, it's "unlikely nature" is irrelevant.
Well...having not stated "where you think it's going" the 'probability' is you can always shout "Oh! I knew it all along!".....where ever it goes.
Just make sure you don't make an argument that could be analogous to Che-Guevara appearing on your shirt and I'll be happy to admit I didn't have any idea what you were about to say.