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What is Evolution?

Evangelicalhumanist

"Truth" isn't a thing...
Premium Member
Well that would be the point. Natural selection works nicely where ID is not banished from the equation, where it can design and eliminate according a vast array of fitness functions, according to a purpose, goal, intent, phenomena that can only exist in creative consciousness, not nature.
So, you appear to be saying (let's consider the peppered moth, for example), that it is not the altered coloring that makes the dark moth easier to spot on the moss-covered trees of the exurbs, and the lighter moth easier for prey to see on the urban trees where those mosses have been killed by pollution -- but rather that some "creative consciousness" is pointing predators to the moths that they can already see?

Wow! That's quite a claim, you betcha!
Again, you make my point exactly, the universe gained in complexity according to the information, universal constants, complex math, specifying exactly how to do so- not by a few simple classical laws randomly bumping around a lot of time and space as once thought. We can look back and see the universe exploding into very distinct stages of development, very finely specified in the instructions at each stage, and all exactly necessary for life as we know it.
To @sayak83 and @Monk Of Reason, do you see something here -- something quite telling about How Guy Threepwood is thinking? His use of the phrase "simple classical laws" suggests that he is seeing those laws in the human, legalistic sense, rather than being expressions of our present level of understanding of natural processes and systems.

And the last phrase, "exactly necessary for life as we know it," ignores the very simple notion that we see those "finely specified instructions" for no other reason than we evolved in a universe (and more on a planet) where the rules simply led to this sort of life. In another universe, with different "instructions," perhaps there's some other intelligence equally convinced that those instructions were fine-tuned specifically in order to facilitate their being.

It is an entirely anthropocentric view. It is what it is SO THAT we can be, rather than we are BECAUSE it is what it is.
 
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Evangelicalhumanist

"Truth" isn't a thing...
Premium Member
So now add to this, and it's not a controversial observation, the larger and more stable the population, the more it resists evolution, because even if you supply a superior mutation, it will probably never dominate a population that's 'doin alright' anyway- and he talks about this problem in the article e.g. horseshoe crabs remaining practically unchanged for 100s of millions of years.

Evolution does not say that change in populations is mandated – it says that change occurs (as you said elsewhere) when stress makes it more likely for some modifications to produce more offspring than those without such modifications. Horseshoe crabs do seem to be a good example, having been around for some 450 million years. The tiny tardigrade is, I think, a better example, having been around for 500 million years, surviving in every environment on earth from the from the frozen tops of mountains to the hot volcanic vents on the sea floor. These little guys can even survive naked in space!

How do you stress something that can do that? Would you allow, then, that the tardigrade is what the “designer” created all this for? Because very little has been around longer, or is likely to survive longer, either.

But if a creature cannot do what the tardigrade can, what happens when change occurs (and in this universe, change is THE LAW)? Well, if you can’t survive the change, you move or die out, and if you can’t move, you die out. Or perhaps you change. And the peppered moth I mentioned elsewhere? Why, look at where and when the first darker versions show up –precisely when urban pollution began to rise as a result of industrial activity! The population in the city responds to the changed environment, while the population in the country doesn’t need to, and would in fact be at higher risk if it did.
 
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Guy Threepwood

Mighty Pirate
Evolution does not say that change in populations is mandated – it says that change occurs (as you said elsewhere) when stress makes it more likely for some modifications to produce more offspring than those without such modifications. Horseshoe crabs do seem to be a good example, having been around for some 450 million years. The tiny tardigrade is, I think, an better example, having been around for 500 million years, surviving in every environment on earth from the from the frozen tops of mountains to the hot volcanic vents on the sea floor. These little guys can even survive naked in space!

right, so that's just one of the complications we uncover when we delve a little deeper into this 'simple undeniable process'. A large gene pool, with a very large number of 'random' mutations are needed to make a significant advantage probable in any of them, but the larger the gene pool, the smaller the chance that this advantage will ever catch on. We can endow a rabbit with super-rabbit powers of reproduction, and he is just as likely to get run over before adulthood as any other. What works intuitively in thought experiments, gets a little trickier in reality.

One study posted by sayak earlier to support beneficial mutations also talks about this, that simply introducing an advantage, as unlikely as that is, ain't enough, if the population is happy and stable anyway, without stress as you say, there is little pressure to select any change.

How do you stress something that can do that? Would you allow, then, that the tardigrade is what the “designer” created all this for? Because very little has been around longer, or is likely to survive longer, either.

I would guess that a book written in french was most likely created for a Frenchman, even if the bacteria in the pages will outlive him, and knowing the French, there's probably quite a lot of it!
So too with the universe, we are the only means we know of, by which the universe can contemplate it's own existence. Many cosmologists, including atheists, have remarked on how extraordinary it is that the universe so lends itself to our understanding.

But if a creature cannot do what the tardigrade can, what happens when change occurs (and in this universe, change is THE LAW)? Well, if you can’t survive the change, you move or die out, and if you can’t move, you die out. Or perhaps you change. And the peppered moth I mentioned elsewhere? Why, look at where and when the first darker versions show up –precisely when urban pollution began to rise as a result of industrial activity! The population in the city responds to the changed environment, while the population in the country doesn’t need to, and would in fact be at higher risk if it did.

We can observe a moth changing color, as our own offspring differing from ourselves. But again, watching an apple fall (not far from) the tree, might tempt us to extrapolate simple laws to account for all physical reality, but that was, by necessity, an overly simplistic fallacy.

And the last phrase, "exactly necessary for life as we know it," ignores the very simple notion that we see those "finely specified instructions" for no other reason than we evolved in a universe (and more on a planet) where the rules simply led to this sort of life. In another universe, with different "instructions," perhaps there's some other intelligence equally convinced that those instructions were fine-tuned specifically in order to facilitate their being.

It is an entirely anthropocentric view. It is what it is SO THAT we can be, rather than we are BECAUSE it is what it is.

I'm familiar with the argument, but it was a little more effective 150 years ago, again before GR, QM, subatomic physics, much of cosmology. Back in the days of Verne and Poe, we pondered about what sort of folks lived on the moon, because we took for granted that life and people were everywhere, in all kinds of different environments, we had no idea how specific those conditions had to be. Now we would be blown away with a fossilized microbe on Mars. The more we learn, the more we realize that the conditions, math, instructions for life are excruciatingly finely engineered.- even just to create space/time, far less sentient life

Alter the universal constants infinitesimally, and you get an infinite variety of dark cold lifeless blobs- just as randomly corrupting the code behind this website would invariably crash it altogether, not just create a slightly different one. In fact that's the explicit rationale for the multiverse theories, that it would take an infinite probability generator to produce such a functional reality as this (if we were to banish the possibility of ID for some reason)
 

sayak83

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
right, so that's just one of the complications we uncover when we delve a little deeper into this 'simple undeniable process'. A large gene pool, with a very large number of 'random' mutations are needed to make a significant advantage probable in any of them, but the larger the gene pool, the smaller the chance that this advantage will ever catch on.

Please provide links to actual scientific papers/articles/books demonstrating these conclusions.

Very specifically, a small number of adult population is less important compared to the number of gametes (sperms and eggs) that are produced by the adults in a generation. The total number of gamete cells is the effective population in which mutation happens and over which selection (starting from differential fertility probability to chance of survivability to birth and then onto adulthood) operates.

Thus
1)Gene Fixation depends on number of adults. This is aided if population size is small. But otherwise we get high polymorphism (multiple gene variants none becoming fully dominant).

2)Number of beneficial mutations arising per generation depends on the number of gamete cells produced by the adults, which are often several orders of magnitude greater than the number of adults (a fish may produce a million gametes every reproductive cycle) and hence ensures that lots of advantageous mutations do arise. Then selection can operate on the differential survivability of the gene variants from fertilizations potential to growth into adulthood ensuring that the most adaptive mutations have a greater chance of being part of the next reproductive cycle and deleterious mutations are not.
 
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Guy Threepwood

Mighty Pirate
Please provide links to actual scientific papers/articles/books demonstrating these conclusions.

c'mon sayak, this is hardly controversial stuff- it's even brought up in one of the articles you posted

http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2013/03/when-timing-is-everything/

"In one case, he said, the mutation occurred 17 times in the same population, yet none of these ever went on to dominate the population...

Though the mutation resulted in as much as a 20 percent increase in fitness, Marx said it simply wasn’t enough in some cases."


gene pools need stress relative to the size of the pool, in order to empower an advantage, if all individuals are thriving anyway, natural selection has no traction- hence 450 millions yr old horseshoe crab designs.

20% is a HUGE advantage, how many single random mutations in a more complex species like a mammal for instance, can achieve this?

Again this is what originally surprised me in coding evolution simulations (when I still adhered to it) The algorithms just don't play out as they do in your head. You can divinely insert individuals with blatant advantages, and they still have little chance of ever having a significant effect on a stable pool. You can stress the pool to try to help it along, but you run the risk of total extinction. You have to keep tilting the playing field in so many ways to get just one single simple obvious advantage to take in isolation..... let alone getting a human being from a single cell by this method, something else is going on here
 

sayak83

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
c'mon sayak, this is hardly controversial stuff- it's even brought up in one of the articles you posted

http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2013/03/when-timing-is-everything/

"In one case, he said, the mutation occurred 17 times in the same population, yet none of these ever went on to dominate the population...

Though the mutation resulted in as much as a 20 percent increase in fitness, Marx said it simply wasn’t enough in some cases."


gene pools need stress relative to the size of the pool, in order to empower an advantage, if all individuals are thriving anyway, natural selection has no traction- hence 450 millions yr old horseshoe crab designs.

20% is a HUGE advantage, how many single random mutations in a more complex species like a mammal for instance, can achieve this?

Again this is what originally surprised me in coding evolution simulations (when I still adhered to it) The algorithms just don't play out as they do in your head. You can divinely insert individuals with blatant advantages, and they still have little chance of ever having a significant effect on a stable pool. You can stress the pool to try to help it along, but you run the risk of total extinction. You have to keep tilting the playing field in so many ways to get just one single simple obvious advantage to take in isolation..... let alone getting a human being from a single cell by this method, something else is going on here
You failed to read the fact that the mutations with 20% advantage were outcompeted by simultaneously occurring mutations with even greater advantage. This a case of competition among the rich, not the poor. Genetic drift was not the cause of elimination of the highly advantageous mutations, but rather other mutations that were even better and got fixed more quickly than their competitors.
in 1970-s people believed that good mutations were rare and had low selective advantages. With experimental genetics, the situation has reversed 180 degrees. Advantageous mutations are not rare, thousands occur simultaneously in a population and there is competition among advantageous mutations in regards to which can fix itself faster.
 

Evangelicalhumanist

"Truth" isn't a thing...
Premium Member
right, so that's just one of the complications we uncover when we delve a little deeper into this 'simple undeniable process'. A large gene pool, with a very large number of 'random' mutations are needed to make a significant advantage probable in any of them, but the larger the gene pool, the smaller the chance that this advantage will ever catch on. We can endow a rabbit with super-rabbit powers of reproduction, and he is just as likely to get run over before adulthood as any other. What works intuitively in thought experiments, gets a little trickier in reality.

One study posted by sayak earlier to support beneficial mutations also talks about this, that simply introducing an advantage, as unlikely as that is, ain't enough, if the population is happy and stable anyway, without stress as you say, there is little pressure to select any change.

I don’t think you’re reading very carefully. The only advantage that we are talking about here is reproductive. What does not increase the likelihood of producing offspring – especially when some other modification does increase that likelihood – is not going to be selected for by natural section.

I would guess that a book written in french was most likely created for a Frenchman, even if the bacteria in the pages will outlive him, and knowing the French, there's probably quite a lot of it!

So too with the universe, we are the only means we know of, by which the universe can contemplate it's own existence. Many cosmologists, including atheists, have remarked on how extraordinary it is that the universe so lends itself to our understanding.

Really? We’ve been studying the universe and everything that we can in it for as long as humans have been around, and it’s only quite recently that we’ve managed to get any handle on it at all. And in spite of how much we think we know, we’re still struggling.

We can observe a moth changing color, as our own offspring differing from ourselves. But again, watching an apple fall (not far from) the tree, might tempt us to extrapolate simple laws to account for all physical reality, but that was, by necessity, an overly simplistic fallacy.

And as has been pointed out before in this thread, by people smarter than I am, the “laws” you speak of are merely our expression of what we have understood about the workings of nature so far. If they are “simple” or incomplete, that is only because we have not yet learned enough. Newton’s laws work magnificently in the mundane world in which we exist and observe with our naked senses. That they require some additional terms at relativistic levels does not invalidate anything that Newton accomplished.

I'm familiar with the argument, but it was a little more effective 150 years ago, again before GR, QM, subatomic physics, much of cosmology. Back in the days of Verne and Poe, we pondered about what sort of folks lived on the moon, because we took for granted that life and people were everywhere, in all kinds of different environments, we had no idea how specific those conditions had to be. Now we would be blown away with a fossilized microbe on Mars. The more we learn, the more we realize that the conditions, math, instructions for life are excruciatingly finely engineered.- even just to create space/time, far less sentient life

Creative pondering isn’t science, but as you say, the more we learn, the more we can refine our guesses. But your use of the word “engineered” is unwarranted except as a guess, and it is just as likely (actually more likely) to me that, rather than the universe being “engineered” for us, we are here, in the form we have, because the universe happens to have the characteristics that it does.

Alter the universal constants infinitesimally, and you get an infinite variety of dark cold lifeless blobs- just as randomly corrupting the code behind this website would invariably crash it altogether, not just create a slightly different one. In fact that's the explicit rationale for the multiverse theories, that it would take an infinite probability generator to produce such a functional reality as this (if we were to banish the possibility of ID for some reason)

And what’s wrong there being an infinite variety of cold, dark, lifeless blobs? Infinity still leaves room, after your lifeless infinity is removed, for an infinite number of other universes teeming with “life” (or at least processes) that we couldn’t even begin to understand – if we could observe.
 

gnostic

The Lost One
Really? We’ve been studying the universe and everything that we can in it for as long as humans have been around, and it’s only quite recently that we’ve managed to get any handle on it at all. And in spite of how much we think we know, we’re still struggling.

hear, hear.

We may have learned a lot these last two centuries, but there are a lot more we could learn about the universe.

What we have managed to uncover and learn, is most likely a fraction of what we can still learn.
 

sayak83

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
right, so that's just one of the complications we uncover when we delve a little deeper into this 'simple undeniable process'. A large gene pool, with a very large number of 'random' mutations are needed to make a significant advantage probable in any of them, but the larger the gene pool, the smaller the chance that this advantage will ever catch on. We can endow a rabbit with super-rabbit powers of reproduction, and he is just as likely to get run over before adulthood as any other. What works intuitively in thought experiments, gets a little trickier in reality.

This, once again, is false. If a new mutation has a selective advantage of "s" then its chance of being fixed in the population (i.e. achieving complete dominance) is 2s. So a new mutant gene with a 1% selective advantage has a possibility of 2% of getting fixed.
However every mutation has a probability of occurrence "u" per gene per generation. So if the population size is N, then the probability of occurrence of a given mutation is 2uN (as every individual has two copies of the same gene). Hence, the mutation with a selective advantage of "s" has a chance of occurring 2uN times in the population in each generation. For large populations (humans, mice, bacteria etc.) this value is actually often greater than 1.

Let me show you how this is. In humans, the rate of mutations per DNA base pair per generation is 4*10^(-8) . LINK
Suppose specific mutation in a base pair is giving rise to the advantageous gene variant.
Then probability that each human possesses at least one copy of that gene is 0.25* 2*4*10^-8 = 2*10^(-8). (each letter can be altered 4 ways, only one way is being considered advantageous).
There are 7*10^9 people (7 billion) on this earth.
Therefore average number of this mutation arising every generation is = [7*10^(9)]*[2*10^(-8)] = 7*2*10=140


Now each of these 140 copies of the same advantageous mutation has the 2% chance of making it, i.e. becoming a dominant gene. Now the odds that at least one will succeed is = 1-[(0.98)^140] = 0.94...94%

Does not look so bad now does it?

So it is precisely in large populations, that an advantageous mutation has a greater chance of succeeding. In small populations, genetic drift effects may cause good mutations to get lost, but not in large ones.

 
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