Brexit is Costing Britain 500 Million Pounds per Week and Growing

[exchemist]

How many of these automotive companies have stated aims to leave the UK because of Brexit?

Built in Britain: UK automotive from A to Z

Naive question.

A good number of manufacturing companies, including automotive manufacturers, have issued warnings that trading conditions will get a lot harder with no deal. This is for the reasons I outlined in post 115, i.e. cost of working capital tied up in stock and associated losses in production flexibility from relying on pre-placed stocks of parts.

However it is obvious no manufacturer is going to state publicly they are leaving the UK until their exit plan is in place, trade union consultation, supplier notification etc all planned. It is grossly destabilising to a business to announce you are leaving, so you have to get your ducks in a row first.

And as of today everything is still up in the air. As I've been saying in my previous posts, it is a no deal Brexit that will fatally weaken these industries. We are not there yet: let's hope we can avoid running UK manufacturing onto those rocks. For now, the damage is that nobody will invest, because they cannot be sure there will be a long term future.

Exiting the UK comes later, by atrophy over a period of years, if we get no deal.

 

[Notanumber]

Naive question.

A good number of manufacturing companies, including automotive manufacturers, have issued warnings that trading conditions will get a lot harder with no deal. This is for the reasons I outlined in post 115, i.e. cost of working capital tied up in stock and associated losses in production flexibility from relying on pre-placed stocks of parts.

However it is obvious no manufacturer is going to state publicly they are leaving the UK until their exit plan is in place, trade union consultation, supplier notification etc all planned. It is grossly destabilising to a business to announce you are leaving, so you have to get your ducks in a row first.

And as of today everything is still up in the air. As I've been saying in my previous posts, it is a no deal Brexit that will fatally weaken these industries. We are not there yet: let's hope we can avoid running UK manufacturing onto those rocks. For now, the damage is that nobody will invest, because they cannot be sure there will be a long term future.

Exiting the UK comes later, by atrophy over a period of years, if we get no deal.

No one can be sure there will be a long-term future in anything especially the EU.

Looking at the current state of play, the UK looks to have a far better future than the EU has.

Nigel Farage says that he has never seen the commissioners looking so worried.

 

[exchemist]

No one can be sure there will be a long-term future in anything especially the EU.

Looking at the current state of play, the UK looks to have a far better future than the EU has.

Nigel Farage says that he has never seen the commissioners looking so worried.

And what have these assertions got to do with the issue of working capital in stock in a car plant?

If we get no deal, we will wreck those industries that rely on just-in-time for their economics. The supposed mood of commissioners will be neither here nor there.

 

[Notanumber]

And what have these assertions got to do with the issue of working capital in stock in a car plant?

If we get no deal, we will wreck those industries that rely on just-in-time for their economics. The supposed mood of commissioners will be neither here nor there.

The mood of commissioners is very relevant.

The possible loss of £39 billion will help to focus the minds of those EU commissioners that are now resorting to unpleasantness.

Now that the gloves are coming off and their mask of civility is slipping, we can see them for what they really are.

How many people do you know that deserve a special place in hell?

Even those hard-line Remoaner’s that did not have a plan do not deserve such a punishment.

 

[exchemist]

The mood of commissioners is very relevant.

The possible loss of £39 billion will help to focus the minds of those EU commissioners that are now resorting to unpleasantness.

Now that the gloves are coming off and their mask of civility is slipping, we can see them for what they really are.

How many people do you know that deserve a special place in hell?

Even those hard-line Remoaner’s that did not have a plan do not deserve such a punishment.

The UK will have to pay most of the £39bn if we want any sort of future cooperation with the EU, as most of it is money we have already committed to pay as an EU member.

If we don't, the planes won't fly and the medicines won't be delivered etc, etc, and quite right too. Our reputation as a reliable county that abides by its written commitments will be trashed for a generation.

It will be paid, don't you worry.

 

[ChristineM]

How many people do you know that deserve a special place in hell?

You would be surprised.


If the UK got its act together and actually commited to stating what it actually wants rather than messing everyone about and spitting in their faces right to the last moment then perhaps, just perhaps, people would not be so p*ssed off with the brexit brigade.

 

[Notanumber]

The UK will have to pay most of the £39bn if we want any sort of future cooperation with the EU, as most of it is money we have already committed to pay as an EU member.

If we don't, the planes won't fly and the medicines won't be delivered etc, etc, and quite right too. Our reputation as a reliable county that abides by its written commitments will be trashed for a generation.

It will be paid, don't you worry.

Our Remainer Prime Minister may have signed things she should not have if she had been properly advised but she did not want proper advisers (Leavers) she followed the advice of Remainer civil servants and politicians.

She has allowed herself to be pushed around by civil servants but the people of the UK will not be pushed around.

Why do you think the Losers vote has been dropped like a lead balloon, is it because the elites have finally realised that it would give Leavers an even bigger majority.

If we had a vote about the proposed £39 billion bribe that would be defeated as well.

Any country that objects can wave goodbye to their foreign aid handouts.

 

[Notanumber]

You would be surprised.


If the UK got its act together and actually commited to stating what it actually wants rather than messing everyone about and spitting in their faces right to the last moment then perhaps, just perhaps, people would not be so p*ssed off with the brexit brigade.

WTO

 

[ChristineM]

WTO

WTF?

 

[Altfish]

WTO

Have you looked into what WTO means?
I don't mean what the Bubble tells you - I mean what it actually means.

I suggest you do, it is dire.

 

[exchemist]

Our Remainer Prime Minister may have signed things she should not have if she had been properly advised but she did not want proper advisers (Leavers) she followed the advice of Remainer civil servants and politicians.

She has allowed herself to be pushed around by civil servants but the people of the UK will not be pushed around.

Why do you think the Losers vote has been dropped like a lead balloon, is it because the elites have finally realised that it would give Leavers an even bigger majority.

If we had a vote about the proposed £39 billion bribe that would be defeated as well.

Any country that objects can wave goodbye to their foreign aid handouts.

Well that's all nice tub-thumping John Bull rhetoric, but it does not address my point.

If we do not settle our debts, we can expect zero cooperation from a trading bloc that is 21 miles away and with which we have 50% of our trade. And that, believe me, will hurt. Quite a bit. The auto industry is just the start of it.

The simple fact is that if we want to be outside the EU, which is 10 times our size, we will find it is like being Mexico next to the USA. We will have to dance to their tune, whether we like it or not. It was in part recognition of this that led the UK to join the EEC and it is in part the failure to recognise this geopolitical reality that has led to us foolishly wanting to leave the EU.

But in a funny way I'm looking forward to the red faces if we crash out and all the lies and the stupidity are exposed. Maybe it is just a process we need to go through, to re-learn what modern economic reality is. But then I'm already retired. If I were an earner with a young family it would be less amusing.

 

[exchemist]

Have you looked into what WTO means?
I don't mean what the Bubble tells you - I mean what it actually means.

I suggest you do, it is dire.

I think I read somewhere that, under WTO rules, you are forced to levy certain imports duties. If so, one of the no deal options, which is to apply zero tariffs unilaterally to reduce paperwork, is illegal under WTO rules.

 

[Notanumber]

If the EU is stupid enough to let us leave with no deal, they will be signing their own suicide note.

Their rhetoric has changed recently from we are ready for a no deal to a no deal is the last thing that we want.

 

[exchemist]

If the EU is stupid enough to let us leave with no deal, they will be signing their own suicide note.

Their rhetoric has changed recently from we are ready for a no deal to a no deal is the last thing that we want.

False. The "rhetoric" has always been that the EU wants a deal - but not at the price of breaking the Good Friday Agreement or wrecking its treaty-based system of rights and responsibilities for all EU members. That has not changed: in fact Selmayr tweeted just last week that it was a good thing the EU started preparing for no deal a year ago.

As for "suicide", that is a bold claim. What do you base it on?

 

[Notanumber]

False. The "rhetoric" has always been that the EU wants a deal - but not at the price of breaking the Good Friday Agreement or wrecking its treaty-based system of rights and responsibilities for all EU members. That has not changed: in fact Selmayr tweeted just last week that it was a good thing the EU started preparing for no deal a year ago.

As for "suicide", that is a bold claim. What do you base it on?

The EU is already falling apart and they desperately need that £39 billion to keep it going for a bit longer.

How many countries are net contributors compared to the countries that are net beneficiaries.

Do the math.

 

[exchemist]

The EU is already falling apart and they desperately need that £39 billion to keep it going for a bit longer.

How many countries are net contributors compared to the countries that are net beneficiaries.

Do the math.

But they will get most of the £39bn, come what may, as per my post 125.

It is true the UK has been a major contributor (~13%) of the budget. But they know that will stop anyway when we leave. A 13% drop in budget will not spell "suicide" for a 50 year political project. That is ridiculous. They will just adapt: spend a bit less and get Germany and France to contribute a bit more.

 

[Altfish]

The EU is already falling apart and they desperately need that £39 billion to keep it going for a bit longer.

How many countries are net contributors compared to the countries that are net beneficiaries.

Do the math.

But this is all Bubble nonsense.
Germany is a net contributor but does very well because of the trade deals. The fact that you are a net contributor doesn't mean you lose out.
This is what the Brexiteers fail to understand. Financially we will be worse off outside the EU

 

[Notanumber]

But they will get most of the £39bn, come what may, as per my post 125.

It is true the UK has been a major contributor (~13%) of the budget. But they know that will stop anyway when we leave. A 13% drop in budget will not spell "suicide" for a 50 year political project. That is ridiculous. They will just adapt: spend a bit less and get Germany and France to contribute a bit more.

In the unlikely event that they did, it would only be a sticking plaster on a gaping wound.

The Germans and the French are going to love that.

Look at what is happening with France and Italy.

 

[exchemist]

In the unlikely event that they did, it would only be a sticking plaster on a gaping wound.

The Germans and the French are going to love that.

Look at what is happening with France and Italy.

The EU certainly has a looming political problem with the return of populist nationalism. (We have our own xenophobic Mussolini-lite on this very forum.) I do not see this as an existential threat to the EU, yet, at least. Though I agree it could become one, if the leadership does not move swiftly to address some of the concerns.

However I find it disturbing that some pro-Brexit people seem actually to hope for the EU to collapse into strife. If it does, it will end up involving England, at great cost to us, as continental strife always has done historically.

I say England since, if we have a hard Brexit, it is likely that N Ireland and Scotland will both have left the union within 10 years. Once people start picking fights with their neighbours and focusing on real or imagined grievance rather than collective endeavour, where does it stop? A no deal Brexit has the potential to destroy the country, literally. And I do mean literally.

 

[Notanumber]

The EU certainly has a looming political problem with the return of populist nationalism. (We have our own xenophobic Mussolini-lite on this very forum.) I do not see this as an existential threat to the EU, yet, at least. Though I agree it could become one, if the leadership does not move swiftly to address some of the concerns.

However I find it disturbing that some pro-Brexit people seem actually to hope for the EU to collapse into strife. If it does, it will end up involving England, at great cost to us, as continental strife always has done historically.

I say England since, if we have a hard Brexit, it is likely that N Ireland and Scotland will both have left the union within 10 years. Once people start picking fights with their neighbours and focusing on real or imagined grievance rather than collective endeavour, where does it stop? A no deal Brexit has the potential to destroy the country, literally. And I do mean literally.

I find it disturbing that some anti-Brexit people seem actually to hope for the UK to collapse into strife rather than accept the will of the people.

The Remoaners started picking fights on the majority of their country as soon as they lost the democratic vote.