Democrats only: Are there lessons to be learned for team Harris?

[Watchmen]

What they will learn from this is they can't have a woman as a candidate. When they ran with a career white male politician, everything went all, the election numbers were amazing and when they gave a try to women on two occasions it simply didn't work.

That’s a cop out.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

There was less than half a percentage point between Trump and Biden, between 2020 and 2024 - possibly even less than that. The Democrats need to pay attention.

Paying attention is not their strong suite.

 

[Augustus]

What they will learn from this is they can't have a woman as a candidate. When they ran with a career white male politician, everything went all, the election numbers were amazing and when they gave a try to women on two occasions it simply didn't work.

Harris got more votes than B Clinton (1st & 2nd) and Obama (2nd) when they won, also more than Kerry and Gore when they lost.

Hillary got more votes than all of them except Obama too. (this works as vote total or as % of US population so is not simply about population growth). She also won the popular vote by a healthy margin.

The "sexist and racist" tropes are just lazy and pander to the speaker's prejudice (and also some of the most powerful ways to persuade people to vote for Trump and 'populaist' candidates)

 

[anna.]

Harris got more votes than B Clinton (1st & 2nd) and Obama (2nd) when they won, also more than Kerry and Gore when they lost.

Hillary got more votes than all of them except Obama too. (this works as vote total or as % of US population so is not simply about population growth). She also won the popular vote by a healthy margin.

The "sexist and racist" tropes are just lazy and pander to the speaker's prejudice (and also some of the most powerful ways to persuade people to vote for Trump and 'populaist' candidates)

View attachment 99629

Vote totals for 2024 aren't finished being tallied, so your 2024 numbers are bound to change. Still over 6 million to be counted in CA alone.

 

[Koldo]

I agree that Trump won't actually improve the economy compared to Biden or Harris; I think a recession may occur if he manages to start a trade war and disrupt federal institutions as widely and deeply as he and his entourage in the GOP seem to want. I'm talking about his PR campaign and how he has sold himself to tens of millions of voters, not whether he will actually deliver improvements to the average citizen's life.

To presume that Trump would improve the country's economy would have little to do with his proposals and a lot to do with trusting in Trump over Harris.

I think a lot of people around the world, not just in the US, don't have deep interest in politics or minutely scrutinizing campaign promises. Some may also vote for change out of being tired of the status quo, without deep scrutiny of what the change would exactly be. I see many problems inherent in both of those approaches, but I can understand why they develop even though I disagree with them.

A major part of politics is related to charisma.

I also believe it's highly noteworthy that Trump has gotten fewer votes this election than he did in 2020, when he lost by a large margin.

He got 74 millions on 2020, and is pretty close 73 millions at this moment. A small difference.

There is no way, in my opinion, that all of those tens of millions of voters are racists, xenophobes, homophobes, theocrats, etc. I think one could correctly bet that the vast majority of voters who strongly harbor such tendencies have indeed voted for Trump because he represents their prejudices and agendas, but I don't see it as realistic to say that the vast majority of Trump voters must also have those tendencies.

Sadly, it is realistic...
The hallmark of conservatism is being at least one of those things. The main distinction between Trump and the others is that Trump is not as closeted about it as others. The key to winning when your bases are huge (which applies to both of the main political parties) is to compel them towards actually showing up to vote. Trump has been consistently able to pull that off. I dare saying Biden pulled off a miracle last time around, or maybe he somehow better represents the Democratic party voters.

He was crushed in the election just four years ago—including in some of the states that he won this time. Since he flipped some states, it is guaranteed that many voters who snubbed him last time voted for him in this election.

I checked some of the swing states and from what I have seen it is quite likely that hardly anyone who voted in the Democratic party in the last election decided to vote in him this time around.

 

[PureX]

I think that Trump won when he asked "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" The answer for thousands of Americans was "No."
It's depressing that people don't vote for ideals as much as for their own pockets but that's the reality.

They vote for ideals once their fear for their survival is resolved.

 

[Koldo]

That’s a cop out.

I think so too. But Biden worked perfectly well, and it is easier to try to find another Biden than to undergo significant changes.

 

[Koldo]

Harris got more votes than B Clinton (1st & 2nd) and Obama (2nd) when they won, also more than Kerry and Gore when they lost.

Hillary got more votes than all of them except Obama too. (this works as vote total or as % of US population so is not simply about population growth). She also won the popular vote by a healthy margin.

The "sexist and racist" tropes are just lazy and pander to the speaker's prejudice (and also some of the most powerful ways to persuade people to vote for Trump and 'populaist' candidates)

View attachment 99629

I don't think it is a matter of being sexist or racist. I think Democratic party voters simply feel better represented by a white male than women. It is not like they had anything in particular against Kamala Harris.

 

[Saint Frankenstein]

Well I assumed when a staff member (Debater Slayer) said:

I'm not a Democrat, but since this thread is in North American Politics, anyone can weigh in, so I will post my two cents.

I could put my two cents in too.

Yup, this isn't a DIR. It should've been posted in Liberal Only if they just wanted to talk amongst themselves without any of us unwashed plebs offering an opinion.

 

[F1fan]

In 2024 Trump received 17% more votes than the average vote count in previous years before 2020 and Harris only received 1.9% more votes. Trump will receive about 2-3% less votes in 2024 than he did in 2020. Harris will receive about 18% less votes than Biden did in 2020. Looks like Trump voters came out for him but Harris voters did not turn out for her the same they did for Biden in 2020. I don't think that many Biden voters switched and voted for Trump this time.

I've been thinking about this today and trying to understand why Trump voters were more motivated to vote than democrats. Still, Trump had 2 million fewer votes this week than he did four years ago, so while there was still more motivation many did not get out.

Harris is another story. She got 13 million fewer votes than Biden did four years ago.

Now in 2020 we were dealing with the pandemic, and that was a massive emergency, and the people got out an voted. In 2024 the economy is booming, we have social and economic stability, we aren't involved in any wars, and life is pretty good. I think voters got lazy. We had no national emergency or crisis to get voters motivated. Of course the difference for MAGA is that if Trump loses he goes to prison. I believe that this was considered an emergency for MAGAs and they were motivated to keep him out of prison. Trump had a disasterous campaign, with even many of his staff admitting to everyone being exhausted and tired of Trump's behavior. Much of the money they raised had to go to pay for lawyers. Even Trump seemed resigned to lose, he was so low energy. If Harris got the same numbers as Biden did in 2020 she wins big.

Democrats? I think they expected to win and Harris would coast to the finish. What explains their apathy? I have no idea. Harris had a fantastic campaign that was built in just days and maintained for 3 months. They raised a billion dollars. The fervor and money was there, but the Biden voters didn't show up. What happened?

I think that's going to be the question, where are the Biden voters? Why wasn't Trump being elected again enough of a threat to your future just as it was in 2020?

 

[Augustus]

I don't think it is a matter of being sexist or racist. I think Democratic party voters simply feel better represented by a white male than women. It is not like they had anything in particular against Kamala Harris.

I'm not sure there is any evidence that supports that, just seems like the kind of think people assume because it fits their narrative.

 

[F1fan]

I also believe it's highly noteworthy that Trump has gotten fewer votes this election than he did in 2020, when he lost by a large margin. There is no way, in my opinion, that all of those tens of millions of voters are racists, xenophobes, homophobes, theocrats, etc. I think one could correctly bet that the vast majority of voters who strongly harbor such tendencies have indeed voted for Trump because he represents their prejudices and agendas, but I don't see it as realistic to say that the vast majority of Trump voters must also have those tendencies. He was crushed in the election just four years ago—including in some of the states that he won this time. Since he flipped some states, it is guaranteed that many voters who snubbed him last time voted for him in this election.

I don't see anyone saying that all his followers fall into the worst character categories. Some of my friends and family voted for Trump and they are good people. When I have talked to them about why they prefer Trump the reasons tend to be that they think he will be better for the economy. When I ask how they just repeat the claims Trump makes, but can't offer an argument. I do think there are old, traditional prejudices at work in theior subconscious, and they are just going to vote for the republican. End of story.

Republicans may not have very good plans for the economy, healthcare, social issues, and foreign policy, but they are exceptional at rhetoric that denegrates democrats. Is it factual? A little bit. But since Gingrich it's been a policy of republicans to treat democrats as more an adversary than Russia, and it doesn't matter that we are Americans who are committed to a set of ideals, too.

 

[Augustus]

What explains their apathy? I have no idea.

Perceptions regarding the economy/cost of living, law and order, immigration and international affairs.

A lot of people don't think these issues have got better over the past 4 years. The incumbent gets the blame for that regardless.

Harris had a fantastic campaign that was built in just days and maintained for 3 months. They raised a billion dollars. The fervor and money was there, but the Biden voters didn't show up. What happened?

I'd say your view that Harris had a fantastic campaign would put you very much in the minority. What did you think she was great at?

Also, she only had 3 months because the Dems (and much of the media) kept on insisting that Biden was fine and would be for 4 more years. Then all of a sudden they decided he had to be ousted and Harris parachuted in without winning the nomination.

 

[F1fan]

Perceptions regarding the economy/cost of living, law and order, immigration and international affairs.

A lot of people don't think these issues have got better over the past 4 years. The incumbent gets the blame for that regardless.

So a convicted felon that was already fired as an inept president is the solution? I don't buy it.

I'd say your view that Harris had a fantastic campaign would put you very much in the minority. What did you think she was great at?

She built a campaign in a few weeks. She only campaigned for about 3 months and closed the poll numbers to Trump dramatically. She raised a record amount of money, over a billion. She had the biggest political events in history. She had a huge number of celebrities and even republicans endorsing her. The enthusiasm was massive.

Yet 13 million voters didn't show up. I'm at a loss.

Also, she only had 3 months because the Dems (and much of the media) kept on insisting that Biden was fine and would be for 4 more years. Then all of a sudden they decided he had to be ousted and Harris parachuted in without winning the nomination.

Of course they said Biden was fine, just as republicans dismiss Trump's obvious mental failings. I blame Biden for running again. He should have known better than to push his luck at his age. The same for Trump, but he was trying to stay out of prison. His back was against the wall, so he had nothing more to lose.

 

[Augustus]

So a convicted felon that was already fired as an inept president is the solution? I don't buy it.

People have short memories and a choice of 2 - many people will perceive things being worse today than 4 years ago.

Therefore the incumbent gets the blame, and the guy from 4 years ago looks better.

Much of the presidency is simply luck in events, but the president gets the praise/blame regardless.

She built a campaign in a few weeks. She only campaigned for about 3 months and closed the poll numbers to Trump dramatically. She raised a record amount of money, over a billion. She had the biggest political events in history. She had a huge number of celebrities and even republicans endorsing her. The enthusiasm was massive.

Yet 13 million voters didn't show up. I'm at a loss.

I'm not seeing anything there that looks like a fantastic campaign. That is just a campaign.

Staged events are just backdrops for media coverage, and money is for ads - what was her vision she communicated in these? Why do you see it as effective political messaging?

Of course they said Biden was fine, just as republicans dismiss Trump's obvious mental failings. I blame Biden for running again. He should have known better than to push his luck at his age. The same for Trump, but he was trying to stay out of prison. His back was against the wall, so he had nothing more to lose.

If they said he was fine, then were shown to be lying, then it's not a great look.

Neither is parachuting in an insipid candidate who is tied to the perceived failures of the incumbent.

 

[F1fan]

I'm not seeing anything there that looks like a fantastic campaign. That is just a campaign.

That's you.

Staged events are just backdrops for media coverage, and money is for ads - what was her vision she communicated in these? Why do you see it as effective political messaging?

I didn't say it was effective. As we have come to know not every citizens uses standard traditional media, and more are using social media which is highly distorted and biased. I doubt she was covered and exposed to many voters. I saw interviews with undecided voters and they were clueless, often saying "I need to do research on the candidates". Jesus Christ, how ****ing hard is it to find content? It's everywhere. My take away is many citizens (especially the young ones) are poorly educated, not informed, or misinformed, and apathetic. Their future prospects have gotten worse as a Trump administration is surely to lead to more inflation, and likely a recession within a few years. The less afluent will suffer the worse.

If they said he was fine, then were shown to be lying, then it's not a great look.

He is fine. He is still highly functional and capable. He is 82 and has the occasional 82 year old issues. Trump's issues are vastly worse, and who knows how his problems will be worse in the coming year. As we know the job of president is highly stressful.

 

[Augustus]

That's you.

And apparently most of the US electorate...

I didn't say it was effective.

Then it wasn't a fantastic campaign as the measure of a campaign is its effectiveness.

My take away is many citizens (especially the young ones) are poorly educated, not informed, or misinformed, and apathetic.

has the electorate ever been other than this?

 

[danieldemol]

Yup, this isn't a DIR. It should've been posted in Liberal Only if they just wanted to talk amongst themselves without any of us unwashed plebs offering an opinion.

Well there is no democrat DIR, and the mods have ruled that OPs can rule out who they don't want in the religious debates section, so it strikes me as an inconsistent approach to have it one way when theocrats throw a fit in religious debates and then not allow Democrats and their supporters a moment of internal reflection in the political debates section in my view.

 

[danieldemol]

Maybe Democrats just didn't have enough time to get used to the transition from Biden to Harris, who knows without further research?

 

[Mock Turtle]

I can understand how the vast majority (all around the world) will simply vote for the candidate or party that they think will do the best for them, given we are all just human and do tend to look out for ourselves and our closest, but the mind boggles as to how so many can ignore Trump's attempts at stealing the last election - apart from poo-pooing such - and where this says a great deal as to the central honesty of this guy. I just thought that people had more honesty within themselves, so was a bit surprised as to him winning. As no doubt others might have said - this is America's Brexit moment - and a huge mistake in my view.