they are both very low, in the case of the monkey you could argue some reasonable odds based on the number of keys etc, for the golf course, the number of possible misses are incalculable, this doesn't mean we can't make a good bet
Apparently, the odds of hitting a hole-in-one have been calculated (12,500 to 1 for an amateur golfer) by the people who're responsible for issuing insurance policies for institutions that're offering a hole-in-one prize. Go figure.
This is via Golf Digest Magazine. Plunk!
Is there a Creationist Digest magazine out there? Anyone have a link?
What does it cost to buy a Creationist Insurance Policy? Are they even offered? Was God an amateur universe creator, or a seasoned pro? The Bible doesn't indicate what his handicap was, does it?
Bah! Who needs insurance when you have absolute certainty?
that's Hawking's own explicit argument, that a vast enough number of random universes would eventually create this one- to what degree 'universe' could be applied to the various cold dark dead results is semantics, the point is- not every shot is a hole in one, there are infinite misses
So Hawking is arguing that if you're allowed an infinite number of chances to win the lottery, eventually your number will come up?
Isn't Hawking arguing that our universe was inevitable?
that's great for a star trek episode, but it's an unambiguous observation that tweaking the code in the singularity would crash the entire program.
How can you possibly
know that?
Sentient life appeared once amongst millions of species here, and amongst a silent galaxy- it's simply not the sort of thing that is 'bound to happen' given any random pile of stuff.
For the sake of argument, would you care to provide evidence that in some other theoretical universe the exact opposite couldn't be true? If not, I'm perfectly happy confining the argument to our own universe.
... random information does not get bored and develop a consciousness for fun, that has to be written in first--
How can you possibly know
that?
at using creative intelligence to create intelligently
Via a brain, correct? And aren't proponents of ID arguing for "mind
sans brain?" Do we have any evidence of intelligence existing outside of a material framework?
...
Of course, Piltdown man proved that beyond doubt
Actually, didn't
Linnaeus (the Christian who is regarded as the father of modern taxonomy) have humans and monkeys classified as primates
well before the Piltdown hoax? Linnaeus wrote his treatise in
1758, correct? The Piltdown scam occurred in
1912, correct? There is a gulf of over 150 years between the two events, no?
And make no mistake ...
Piltdown Man was a
hoax. Hoaxes don't really prove anything, do they?
The Piltdown evidence wasn't convincing and failed to withstand scrutiny. The truth soon won out. This is how science works. It is demonstrably self-correcting and amendable. If only monotheism were
half as pliable.
You might look into
The Donation of Constantine as an analogous example. You might even conclude that the resulting damage was much more extensive than that wrought by the Piltdown Man hoax.
Mind you: I'd
never suggest that the Donation of Constantine is evidence that there is no God. It only illustrates that God's self-appointed proxies can be ruthlessly dishonest when making claims.