Oh? So, there's no evidence of what happened a century ago? Is there some statute of limitations you're invoking here?
I would agree that it's extremely unlikely that any such invasion or attack would happen today, but to say "ZERO" like that is spreading it on too thick. There was "ZERO" reason for NATO to go on existing after the collapse of the USSR and dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, but they went ahead and did it anyway.
Moreover, hostility and malignancy do not begin and end with an outright open invasion or attack. The West's approach tends to be more subtle, which can allow them a certain degree of plausible deniability. The state of the world can also change. Countries and governments can change sides literally overnight. It does happen. Anything is possible, so I can't accept your emphatic "ZERO" as some kind of prediction with 100% reliability.
Yes, just like the oil-rich Middle East, we've become economically interdependent with them. And so we have troops scattered around there, too - and many of the locals don't really like that too much. Even in Western Europe, our closest allies seem to expressing visible irritation with America these days. Some have even expressed a degree of fear of America, as they don't really know what we're going to do. I'm an American, and even I don't know.
See, you're just talking about paper law here. Because it says something on paper or given an endorsement by lawyers and politicians, you accept that as some kind of irrefutable reality. Every treaty is just a promise, saying "Trust us."
You only need to fear such an alliance if you yourself plan on attacking members of it.
Another possible reason to fear such an alliance is if you don't really trust the word or the integrity of the governments and leaders of the nations which comprise that alliance. Or maybe they don't feel they can count on the stability of our governments. Some people are worried about what the US government might look like a year from now. There's also been a resurgence of right-wing nationalism in European countries which could change things.
I don't think they fear a "defensive alliance" as such, but the countries and the politics involved are a far different matter.
Any country in a similar situation would also have reasonable cause for concern, regardless of the pretexts or the publicly-stated objectives. The US has had misgivings and worries about Cuba and Nicaragua becoming pro-Soviet. Even if they were just allied defensively, they still had cause to worry. Why is it so difficult to understand that that Russians could have similar worries about a rival power bloc establishing a military presence on their border?
It is exactly on-point, since the point of discussion is if Russia needs to be worried about being attacked by NATO
NATO's raison d'être is DEFENSE in case of BEING attacked.
There is NOTHING in the treaty / manifesto which warrants any kind of attack / first strike. At all.
It is all about what happens when a member is attacked and nothing else.
I'm well aware of the contents of the treaty. But my point is that, in war, defining who is the "aggressor" and who is the "defender" is a legal technicality, decided by lawyers and politicians. Sometimes, a biased media can help, with selective reportage of the facts. Again, these things do happen. They've happened before. Not with "NATO" specifically as a group, but one has to look at the larger picture here.
That wouldn't necessarily stop other countries from helping them or joining them, even if the NATO treaty would not apply. If the other NATO countries get together and decide that it does, then it's a done deal. It's all subject to interpretation.
I'm not saying that NATO or the U.S. would wantonly attack Russia or any other country, but we have used our economic power and great military might to intimidate and use as leverage to get what our leaders want.
However, NATO is also being put to a bit of a test here. The Ukraine-Russia War has reached a point of stalemate, and it could go on like this for quite some time. It's expected that NATO will continue to send military aid to Ukraine, but will not join the war on the Ukrainian side. The risk is too great.
