What do you suppose the odds are that Islamic reform movements will, over perhaps the next 50 years, bring about a general liberalization of Islam?
Not good.
Based on similar historical paradigms, the Arab/ Muslim world will destroy large portions of planet Earth and hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people before they are immolated in their own Black Hole of Death and Destruction.
After that - pretty good chance of reform and liberalization.
How would you compare those odds to the odds that Islamic reform movements will over a similar time frame bring about a general retrenchment of conservative Islam?
Today's Islam IS the "Islamic Reform" movements.
The Death Cult of Wahhabism has replaced normative Sunni Islam as the influence of the tribe of al Saud/ al Wahhab spreads. After the conquest of the Arabian peninsula; the sack and rape of Mecca; and the now unbroken dominance of the tribe of al Saud in the world, the rest of of tribal Sunni Islam has fallen under the sway of Wahhabism. Every new "Sunni" sect of fanatical Islam has taken their core beliefs from the death cult of Wahhabism.
The remaking of Shia Islam is more recent but, the heretic death cult of Vilayat al Fiqh in Iran is now the predominant Shia death cult in the Middle East. Whether or not Shia Islam succumbs to this heresy as has Sunni Islam to Wahhabism, remains to be seen.
This IS Islamic Reform.
Do you think any liberalization of Islam will to any great extent echo the European Enlightenment -- say, in adopting the Enlightenment principle that customs and practices must be based on reason, rather than merely customary or traditional? Or in adopting the Enlightenment principle that there ought to be a separation of religion and government?
There is no liberalization currently in Islam.
However, the end result of "European Enlightenment" may mirror almost exactly the end result of the current "Islamic reform."
The "Enlightenment" was an attempt at a Secular understanding of the world after 300 years of the incredibly brutal and devastating Christian European Sectarian Civil World War called the "Reformation."
This "Reformation" massacred tens of millions, mostly European Christians, and devastated cities and towns all over the European continent and abroad; essentially depopulating and destroying Northern Europe at one point.
After the majority of both the "religious" and secular Europeans went bankrupt and could no longer fund the mercenary armies hired to kill each other, various so called thinkers and philosophers promulgated the "Enlightenment," figuring that anything had to be better than lifetimes of murder and annihilation in the Name of various gods and no gods.
It is quite possible that when the Arabs and Muslims have become exhausted after destroying each other; countless millions of non Arabs and non Muslims; and have irradiated or diseased large tracts of their "Enemies" land masses, they may find their own "Enlightenment."
Why not? The European Christians did.
BONUS QUESTION: If you were going to reform Islam, how exactly would you reform it?
I would find a group of militant Muslims who were willing to die for the sake of a Peaceful Islam and encourage them to arm and aggressively destroy all of the other mufsidun (evil doers who wage war not in accordance with the principles of the Koran) who are hell bent on destroying themselves and planet Earth.
Of course, then there would be the theological question of first finding a Righteous Caliph... However, I suspect that scholars of Islam could find their way around such theological questions.
- All of the religions of Abraham appear to be "reforming" their religions, by fudging harsh text to mean something softer. This is actually good for the rest of us.