Italy 50% mortality rate with COVID-19

[Wu Wei]

Because we can only go off competed cases. Not ongoing ones.

And what is a "competed case? 621 confirmed is 621 confirmed, that means they have the virus....1 dies... that is not 50%

 

[dfnj]

How do you come to that 50% figure? Norway has 621 infected and only 1 death. You are basing this on fear, not reality.

1266 + 1439 = 2705

1266 is 46.7% of 2705.

The thing is the 1439 number (Recovered) means the number of people who have left the hospital cured. It's not a top line number of any of these percentages.

Top number: 17660 Bottom number: 1266

Percentage: 1277 / 17660 * 100 = 7.1 % (still alarmingly very high but not 50%)

Numbers stated here:

Italy Coronavirus: 17,660 Cases and 1,266 Deaths - Worldometer

 

[Cooky]

What about the 13.026 people who are sick? why do you not count them? they will be a part of the statistic either as healthy or dead, so they should be counted too

In the end, we can include them. After all cases have gone the course.

 

[Wandering Monk]

So, Landon predicts that 50% of the people who get the infection will die from it.

Estimates of the percentage of people who will be exposed globally range from 50 to 70%.

By Landon's apocalyptic calculations, 2 to 3 billion people will die from this disease globally.

 

[Wu Wei]

1266 + 1439 = 2705

1266 is 46.7% of 2705.

The thing is the 1439 number (Recovered) means the number of people who have left the hospital cured. It's not a top line number of any of these percentages.

Top number: 17660 Bottom number: 1266

Percentage: 1277 / 17660 * 100 = 7.1 % (still alarmingly very high but not 50%)

Numbers stated here:

Italy Coronavirus: 17,660 Cases and 1,266 Deaths - Worldometer

Still not a 50% mortality rate, which is the title of this thread states

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

It appears that the mortality rate for those under 40 is less than 1%. For those over 80, it is undoubtedly higher, possibly up to 8-10%

 

[Spirit of Light]

In the end, we can include them. After all cases have gone the course.

But it is an ongoing case. 2 get healthy 3 get sick 5 dies, some more get ill. not until the day nobody get sick gealthy or die from this virus will your idea be a fully functional statistic we can learn from. But right now we are in the middle of it, so yes the number will go up and down for some time.

 

[dfnj]

So, Landon predicts that 50% of the people who get the infection will die from it.

Estimates of the percentage of people who will be exposed globally range from 50 to 70%.

By Landon's apocalyptic calculations, 2 to 3 billion people will die from this disease globally.

Please do not make it worse than it is. I'm getting panic overload. The number is not 50%. Jesus Christ this is like yelling fire in a crowded theater. If you don't know what you are talking about then S T F U.

 

[Wandering Monk]

Please do not make it worse than it is. I'm getting panic overload. The number is not 50%. Jesus Christ this is like yelling fire in a crowded theater. If you don't know what you are talking about then S T F U.

I don't believe those numbers. I was just trying to highlight how ludicrous Landon's assertion is.

 

[dfnj]

But it is an ongoing case. 2 get healthy 3 get sick 5 dies, some more get ill. not until the day nobody get sick gealthy or die from this virus will your idea be a fully functional statistic we can learn from. But right now we are in the middle of it, so yes the number will go up and down for some time.

Until everyone is tested you don't know the top line number. Plus people can get it after they are tested. If we are going to be complete morons about it then you can say only 5375 people have died out of 7.53 billion in the World so your chances of dying from it are practically zero. Which is a moronic thing to say but no different than the other moron statement.

 

[columbus]

Someone please tell me what the RECOVERY rate is in Italy?

Try that for perspective..!

How would anyone even know what the infection rate is in Italy?

Do you really think that the Italian government will be more honest about statistics than the Chinese or Americans?
If so, why?
They've got far more to lose.
Tom

 

[Cooky]

All I know is that an equal amount of people in Italy have died from COVID-19 as have recovered from it.

...It doesn't matter how many active cases there are left. They will roll out the same at this rate. It is a steady, ongoing 50/50.

 

[Wandering Monk]

This chart shows that the number of cases in China has stabilized and that the recovery rate is still increasing. I don't expect them to converge, but the recovery rate appears to be approaching the total confirmed cases.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/21086.jpeg

 

[Cooky]

This chart shows that the number of cases in China has stabilized and that the recovery rate is still increasing. I don't expect them to converge, but the recovery rate appears to be approaching the total confirmed cases.

I hope you're right. But look at the chart above and see how just as many humans recover as die.

...I don't care about any other numbers, Top, bottom, whatever.

 

[dfnj]

All I know is that an equal amount of people in Italy have died from COVID-19 as have recovered from it.

...It doesn't matter how many active cases there are left. They will roll out the same at this rate. It is a steady, ongoing 50/50.

So you are going to double down on your stupidity. If you looked at the link I gave you it had more information about what "Recovered" meant.

 

[dfnj]

I hope you're right. But look at the chart above and see how just as many humans recover as die.

...I don't care about any other numbers, Top, bottom, whatever.

Then don't talk about "percentages" if you are math illiterate!

 

[exchemist]

...It appears the coronavirus is taking lives at an increasing rate. I don't know if the CDC is not wanting us to know this, the death toll seems substantially higher in Europe than was reported in China.

Italy closes bars, restaurants and most shops as coronavirus death toll jumps 30%

Coronavirus Italy: death toll leaps 23% in a day to over 15,000 | Daily Mail Online

827/12,462 is not 50%. It is 6.6%. And that is unlikely to be the true mortality rate, since the denominator does not include all the probable cases out there that are too slight be be tested and diagnosed.

Please do not spread false information about this disease: you will worry people (including yourself) more than necessary.

 

[We Never Know]

Indeed. A 50% mortality rate in Norway too.

Settle down @Landon Caeli .
If you want the fatality rate you take known number of cases/known number of deaths.

Norway for example is 900 cases, 1 death.

1/900=0.001 or 0.1% fatality rate of known cases for Norway.

 

[exchemist]

Someone please tell me what the RECOVERY rate is in Italy?

Try that for perspective..!

The recovery rate is probably >93%, but we do not really know. This is because the rate at which people are catching it greatly exceeds the rate at which the smaller number that got it a fortnight ago are clearing themselves of it. When an epidemic is ramping up exponentially like this, it is what you get.

The death rate is well under 10% and probably closer to 2-3%. As others have been pointing out, you have been using the wrong number in the denominator. Stop panicking.

 

[Cooky]

Then don't talk about "percentages" if you are math illiterate!

Your wrong. Here's why:

2061 completed cases
1016 dead
1045 recovered.

Those are the variables.