Italy 50% mortality rate with COVID-19

[Dawnofhope]

Based on available data we can’t calculate the mortality rate for certain. As highlighted already we don’t know how many of the milder cases are not tested. However based on those who are actually tested the mortality rate appears close to 5-6%. I found this link useful to assist us to more accurately calculate the mortality rate. Hope it helps bring some balance and perspective to an important discussion.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present. 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020

The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]

(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology).

In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.

The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be:

CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.

One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak).

Let's take, for example, the data at the end of February 8, 2020: 813 deaths (cumulative total) and 37,552 cases(cumulative total) worldwide.

If we use the formula (deaths / cases) we get:

813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula).

With a conservative estimate of T = 7 days as the average period from case confirmation to death, we would correct the above formula by using February 1 cumulative cases, which were 14,381, in the denominator:

Feb. 8 deaths / Feb. 1 cases = 813 / 14,381 = 5.7% CFR(correct formula, and estimating T=7).

T could be estimated by simply looking at the value of (current total deaths + current total recovered) and pair it with a case total in the past that has the same value. For the above formula, the matching dates would be January 26/27, providing an estimate for T of 12 to 13 days. This method of estimating T uses the same logic of the following method, and therefore will yield the same result.

Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

 

[Cooky]

Based on your math abilities, Landon, I'm going to predict you support Mr. Trump.

LOL. We'll see in the end, after all the "active" cases are complete. Even France has more people who have died from the disease than who have recovered... *So far*... That's all I was saying, was "so far".



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Esri ArcGIS map tracks global coronavirus cases - GPS World

 

[David1967]

I don't trust the Chinese statistics.

Nor do I. Early on when China said they had 1300 confirmed cases, my wife said that if China says 1300, you can count on it being closer to 40,000. She was right.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

Anybody who watched Trump declare a national emergency today must now realize that he totally does not get it. Watch him shake hands with many people, constantly adust microphones that everybody else is also adjusting and speaking into at very close range. Utterly clueless.

And his response to the woman who asked him about his adminstration's closure of the White Pandemic office -- which has certainly contributed to the late start getting control of this thing -- should now know that you are being led by an utter moron.

I wish you luck. I really do. From my heart.

 

[sun rise]

Even according to your own chart, 1,266 have died and 1439 have recovered... That's about a 50% mortality rate.

No. You are ignoring the still sick.

 

[sun rise]

Still infected! Waiting to see!

Regardless, at this rate, which I've been tracking, 50% live, 50% die.

Confirmation bias in action.

 

[Nakosis]

Apparently San Diego store shelves are empty...
Empty Shelves: Signs of the Coronavirus Impact in San Diego

 

[Cooky]

Everyone look at these numbers...! Just look..!

View attachment 37807

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...Today looks a little better in Italy ratio-wise between deaths and recoveries... Still not good though.

...Let's hope all the existing cases turn out to be recoveries.

 

[metis]

...Today looks a little better in Italy ratio-wise between deaths and recoveries... Still not good though.

View attachment 37838

...Let's hope all the existing cases turn out to be recoveries.

Please stay healthy, and I'll pray for you & yours.

BTW, are masses where you're at canceled? They are here in the Detroit Archdiocese, but one can come in for private prayer as long as they are 6 foot or more away from anyone else.

 

[Cooky]

Please stay healthy, and I'll pray for you & yours.

BTW, are masses where you're at canceled? They are here in the Detroit Archdiocese, but one can come in for private prayer as long as they are 6 foot or more away from anyone else.

Masses are available for weekends only here. But all schools are closed, so the kids came home with laptops on Friday to continue their schoolwork from home.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

Everyone look at these numbers...! Just look..!

View attachment 37807

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS



...Of all the people in Italy who no longer have Corona virus, HALF ARE DEAD..!!!

Where are you getting these conclusions from?
Literally every source you posted doesn't come anywhere near "half" for those that died.

Note also that the confirmed cases of infection are only those that were actually tested and reported. The real number is very likely to be much higher. Many people barely notice it. They'll have a running nose for a day or two -if even that- and that was their corona infection. These people don't get tested and reported. Many don't even bother calling a doctor. These cases are actually the reason for closing down all restarurants etc. Because those that don't feel sick don't know they are infect and just go outside and infect others.


In any case, calm down.
Read the two articles again. Neither of the cited % is refering to a % of the total of confirmed infections.

And your screenshot literally shows the amount infected and the mount of dead.
How is that anywhere near half?
Half of 15.000 is 7500, last time I checked.


Just relax. When you meet people outside of your immediate circle (as in: people that don't live in the same house as you do), keep 1 to 2m distance. Don't shake hands, don't do hugs or kisses. When interacting with objects outside of your house, as in that are also being touched by "third party" people, make sure not to touch your face before neatly washing your hands and you'll be just fine.

If everyone does that for a week or 3, then all this will be over real fast.

The problem is that most people don't do this for a week or 3 and are irresponsible egotistical pricks.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

According to the above chart, of you get coronavirus, you have a 50% chance of survival. And a 50% chance of dying.

This is unprecedented.

Not a single source you posted actually says that. Not even remotely.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

No, you cannot include the numbers of those who are still infected, because their outcome is undetermined. You can only count on those who have recovered or died. You're misleading yourself.

...Unless you can explain why we should consider incomplete cases in our net numbers.

Dude stop your panicking already

75k cured
6k dead

And that's only counting the cases that were severe enough to be tested and reported.

 

[Cooky]

Dude stop your panicking already

View attachment 37877

75k cured
6k dead

And that's only counting the cases that were severe enough to be tested and reported.

I was excluding the Chinese and other non-European populations, and going by Italy specifically.

...After China, Russia and Iran accused the U.S. of making the virus, I no longer consider them credible.

Meanwhile, countries like France have more deaths than recoveries (92 deaths 12 recoveries). Belgium, the Netherlands, and a host of other places also have reported more deaths than recoveries.

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[Cooky]

Also, it's been reported that China made many efforts to conceal various things from the world, and even left factory equipment running when nobody was there so that the government would think they were working. And the Chinese government tried to cover the whole thing up initially until they couldn't

...So the global numbers are unreliable to me. I'll only be trusting the European and American stats and a few other countries.

 

[stvdv]

I'll stop because nobody likes what I'm doing. But I still don't get why I'm wrong.

I like what you are doing.
And you were very right to worry.
At least one, who is not blind (gullible to what media is feeding) about the dangers of corona virus.

Maybe when everyone calms down, later, someone can patiently explain why:

• 2061 completed cases
• 1016 dead
• 1045 recovered

...Are the wrong numbers to use for Italy.

No, your numbers were great, on march 13
(except that the unrecovered might not all die)
But especially when comparing them to march 16
The number of dead is significant and important
As there has been an increase from 1016 dead to 1809 dead in just 3 days ... right an increase of 80% in 3 days only
(You were very right to look at the death ... especially to look at the increase per day ... that number tells a lot)

Italy
Coronavirus Cases:
24,747
Deaths:
1,809
Recovered:
2,335


Few days ago in Holland they said "Don't worry about schools, no danger will come from there".
I immediately said, that this is stupid. 2 days later they advised to close the schools.

They even wrote "fear of Corona is at least as dangerous as Corona itself". Stupid remark too. Better scare the **** out of the people, then at least they take it serious, when they have to self-quarantine (if not scared, then people have no discipline to do what MUST be done for safety of others). Because 1 person with the virus, not taking proper action, can kill a whole city easily in a few weeks (I am optimistic here).

Spoiler: Proof how stupid and irresponsible and inhumane some people act

Yesterday, here in Holland there was a queue for weed, because from yesterday 18:00 all weed shops were about to get closed. In the row was a man coughing. Police told him to stop. He spit the police man in the face, and someone on twitter replied "yes, police should not be rude to tell someone without probably cause ...etc...".

Proof how dangerous this virus is:
Below a doctor explaining: Most masks are ineffective, because the virus needs just 1 micrometer to pass through, so you need specific masks

Spoiler: doctor on Corona dangers and whether or not protective masks work

Does it work?
When it comes to the most common model - a thin piece of fabric that you attach with two rubber bands behind your ears - the answer is simply no, says virologist Marjolein Knoester at the UMC Groningen. ,, This mask does not fit seamlessly on the face, so there is always air running along the sides. In addition, the holes in the fabric are so large that the virus particles - which travel through airborne droplets - pass through them. It is false security. ” The only benefit the mask has is creating awareness, the virologist says. ,, You are less inclined to touch your face. Because you can also easily transmit the virus through your hands when you touch your mouth or nose. ”

But these are the same protective masks surgeons wear in operating theaters. Are they also nonsense?
They are indeed the same masks, says Knoester, but they serve a different purpose. “They protect the surgeon from splashing blood. So they do not protect OR staff against a (corona) virus that the patient may be carrying. ” It is therefore of no use to citizens who wear a mask as a precaution. A cap may still be useful for patients. “An infected person thus prevents him from spraying a large amount of snot in the room. The droplets from a sneeze can reach up to a meter without a mask. ”

Is there a mask that does protect?
Yes, the lesser known FFP2 mask. This mask has a special breathing filter and is worn by hospital staff when they are around patients with chickenpox, measles and flu. According to Knoester, it is practically useless in everyday life. ,, All air that is inhaled and exhaled goes through the filter, which is very heavy. You can keep that up for half an hour, then you will be exhausted. Moreover, it is so terribly tight on your face that many people quickly slide it down. Then it doesn't work. ”

Those who nevertheless want to wear a mask should never grab it by the outside, the Red Cross advises. If virus particles stick there, it is more likely that you will become infected.

How much does a mouth mask cost?
The University Medical Center Groningen pays eight cents per surgical mask and about two euros for an FFP2 mask (the mask with the air filter). Of course, the hospital does bulk purchase. Prices have skyrocketed online since the outbreak of the corona virus. For an FFP2 mask, sixty euros is quickly asked. It is unclear exactly how long they last.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

I was excluding the Chinese and other non-European populations, and going by Italy specifically.

Maybe you should exclude all numbers except the amount of dead, and then claim it has a 100% mortality rate.

...After China, Russia and Iran accused the U.S. of making the virus

Which is conspiratory nonsense.

Meanwhile, countries like France have more deaths than recoveries (92 deaths 12 recoveries). Belgium, the Netherlands, and a host of other places also have reported more deaths than recoveries.

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Because recovery easily takes 3 to 4 weeks, while those that die do so a lot sooner.
The outbreak in Belgium for example has just started.

The desease progresses fast in those who are weak, old and already have other problems (and therefor complications).

Note also that "cured" means taking a test again and it turning out negative. While you can feel fine after a couple of days, the virus remains for some time after that. So from beginning to end, "curing" can take up as long as a month.

Next to that, there's also the fact that due to not having an unlimited supply of tests, many doctors don't "waste" tests when they don't think it is required to test. Yesterday a friend of mine woke up with a running nose and a cough. He phoned his doctor and was told "don't come here, quanrantine yourself and have someone bring you grosseries - you stay home".

So, does he have "it"? Maybe. One thing is certain... if he DOES have it, he won't be showing up in the numbers cited here, because he's not an officially tested, confirmed and reported case.

It is estimated that the real number of infected (and by now, cured) people is perhaps twice or even 3 times as high as what has been confirmed.

It might in fact mean that the actual mortality rate of the virus is only slightly higher then a standard flu. The problem? We have vaccines for the standard flu and are thus able to protect those at risk. That is the real problem.


It seems you are hellbend on believing this is somehow among the most deadliest of deseases ever, no matter the evidence.

 

[Howard Is]

We're looking at a 50% mortality rate. Not 1 to 3%.

I don’t think so.
The 1016 who died would have succumbed quickly because they were old and ill.
Much more quickly than recovery takes. So of the 13000 or so active cases, most will survive.

So, no. Not anywhere near 50% mortality.

 

[Martin]

We're looking at a 50% mortality rate. Not 1 to 3%.

Bear in mind though that the actual number of people infected is probably ten times the number of confirmed cases. Which makes the real mortality rate much lower.

 

[Cooky]

I like what you are doing.
And you were very right to worry.
At least one, who is not blind (gullible to what media is feeding) about the dangers of corona virus.


No, your numbers were great, on march 13
(except that the unrecovered might not all die)
But especially when comparing them to march 16
The number of dead is significant and important
As there has been an increase from 1016 dead to 1809 dead in just 3 days ... right an increase of 80% in 3 days only
(You were very right to look at the death ... especially to look at the increase per day ... that number tells a lot)

Italy
Coronavirus Cases:
24,747
Deaths:
1,809
Recovered:
2,335


Few days ago in Holland they said "Don't worry about schools, no danger will come from there".
I immediately said, that this is stupid. 2 days later they advised to close the schools.

They even wrote "fear of Corona is at least as dangerous as Corona itself". Stupid remark too. Better scare the **** out of the people, then at least they take it serious, when they have to self-quarantine (if not scared, then people have no discipline to do what MUST be done for safety of others). Because 1 person with the virus, not taking proper action, can kill a whole city easily in a few weeks (I am optimistic here).

Spoiler: Proof how stupid and irresponsible and inhumane some people act

Yesterday, here in Holland there was a queue for weed, because from yesterday 18:00 all weed shops were about to get closed. In the row was a man coughing. Police told him to stop. He spit the police man in the face, and someone on twitter replied "yes, police should not be rude to tell someone without probably cause ...etc...".

Proof how dangerous this virus is:
Below a doctor explaining: Most masks are ineffective, because the virus needs just 1 micrometer to pass through, so you need specific masks

Spoiler: doctor on Corona dangers and whether or not protective masks work

Does it work?
When it comes to the most common model - a thin piece of fabric that you attach with two rubber bands behind your ears - the answer is simply no, says virologist Marjolein Knoester at the UMC Groningen. ,, This mask does not fit seamlessly on the face, so there is always air running along the sides. In addition, the holes in the fabric are so large that the virus particles - which travel through airborne droplets - pass through them. It is false security. ” The only benefit the mask has is creating awareness, the virologist says. ,, You are less inclined to touch your face. Because you can also easily transmit the virus through your hands when you touch your mouth or nose. ”

But these are the same protective masks surgeons wear in operating theaters. Are they also nonsense?
They are indeed the same masks, says Knoester, but they serve a different purpose. “They protect the surgeon from splashing blood. So they do not protect OR staff against a (corona) virus that the patient may be carrying. ” It is therefore of no use to citizens who wear a mask as a precaution. A cap may still be useful for patients. “An infected person thus prevents him from spraying a large amount of snot in the room. The droplets from a sneeze can reach up to a meter without a mask. ”

Is there a mask that does protect?
Yes, the lesser known FFP2 mask. This mask has a special breathing filter and is worn by hospital staff when they are around patients with chickenpox, measles and flu. According to Knoester, it is practically useless in everyday life. ,, All air that is inhaled and exhaled goes through the filter, which is very heavy. You can keep that up for half an hour, then you will be exhausted. Moreover, it is so terribly tight on your face that many people quickly slide it down. Then it doesn't work. ”

Those who nevertheless want to wear a mask should never grab it by the outside, the Red Cross advises. If virus particles stick there, it is more likely that you will become infected.

How much does a mouth mask cost?
The University Medical Center Groningen pays eight cents per surgical mask and about two euros for an FFP2 mask (the mask with the air filter). Of course, the hospital does bulk purchase. Prices have skyrocketed online since the outbreak of the corona virus. For an FFP2 mask, sixty euros is quickly asked. It is unclear exactly how long they last.

Thank you. This thread was and is about Italy specifically, with me encouraging people to keep an eye on Italy, and merely observe it.

What you have added to the discussion is very useful. Thanks.