Italy 50% mortality rate with COVID-19

[Cooky]

The recovery rate is >93%.

Did you use: 2061 completed cases, 1016 dead, 1045 recovered as your numbers?

 

[Cooky]

Settle down @Landon Caeli .
If you want the fatality rate you take known number of cases/known number of deaths.

Norway for example is 900 cases, 1 death.

1/900=0.001 or 0.1% fatality rate of known cases for Norway.

That's wrong. You can't count 898 of those cases... They're incomplete as of this time.

 

[exchemist]

Did you use: 2061 completed cases, 1016 dead, 1045 recovered as your numbers?

No because those are the wrong numbers to use. Please look at the fuller answer I have now given, in the amended text to my post. And stop panicking, please.

 

[Cooky]

827/12,462 is not 50%. It is 6.6%. And that is unlikely to be the true mortality rate, since the denominator does not include all the probable cases out there that are too slight be be tested and diagnosed.

Please do not spread false information about this disease: you will worry people (including yourself) more than necessary.

Please be honest. We cannot include active cases in our final numbers. They're incomplete.

...we cannot assume that active cases will all end up in the 'recovered' category. We must exclude them in our calculations.

 

[We Never Know]

That's wrong. You can't count 898 of those cases... They're incomplete as of this time.

Those 898 are alive. So yes you can count them in the overall fatality % of the known cases to known deaths.

 

[Spirit of Light]

Please be honest. We cannot include active cases in our final numbers. They're incomplete.

...we cannot assume that active cases will all end up in the 'recovered' category. We must exclude them in our calculations.

Is it not better to see what we have from day to day? this is an ongoing infection, nobody know the final answer to this before it is all over. So we have to look at every number each day to see the development in + or - nothing else we can do right now

 

[exchemist]

Please be honest. We cannot include active cases in our final numbers. They're incomplete.

I know that.

Look, we know the approximate death rate from China, where the curve has flattened. The numbers in Italy remain more or less consistent with what we know from China - probably rather higher due to the age of the population, but still broadly consistent with it. In Italy, most of the people who have it but have not died of it are doing OK, but are not yet 100% clear of the virus. This is what happens - you get a tailing off of infectiousness over a period of weeks. That is why the number of "recovered" cases is low.

No medical commentator on this disease - in any country - has estimated the true mortality higher than 4%, to my knowledge, and most seem to put it at 1-2%, heavily skewed towards the very old and those with existing medical problems.

 

[Cooky]

I know that.

Look, we know the approximate death rate from China, where the curve has flattened. The numbers in Italy remain more or less consistent with what we know from China - probably rather higher due to the age of the population, but still broadly consistent with it. Most of the people who have it but have not died of it are doing OK, but are not yet 100% clear of the virus. This is what happens - you get a tailing off of infectiousness over a period of weeks. That is why the number of "recovered" cases is low.

No medical commentator on this disease - in any country - has estimated the true mortality higher than 4%, to my knowledge, and most seem to put it at 1-2%, heavily skewed towards the very old and those with existing medical problems.

They don't want to panic people so they they include the hospitalized who are still sick as "recovered".

 

[Cooky]

Those 898 are alive. So yes you can count them in the overall fatality % of the known cases to known deaths.

That's one way of looking at it. I was viewing it as completed, vs. non-completed cases in people.

But if people want to look at as dead vs. Not dead, then that's another way of looking at it.

...I think my view is true and reliable though, while the other is hopeful and optimistic.

 

[exchemist]

They don't want to panic people so they they include the hospitalized who are sick as "recovered".

Don't be absurd. You are now suggesting a worldwide conspiracy by all the doctors and epidemiologists - in a wide range of political systems, many of which are rivals, to delude people. This is mad, frankly.

Hasn't it occurred to you that, if there really were such a conspiracy, the conspirators would hardly be likely to be so careless as to leave the real numbers on the internet, where you could read them and work out the truth?

STOP PANICKING.

 

[Cooky]

Don't be absurd. You are now suggesting a worldwide conspiracy by all the doctors and epidemiologists - in a wide range of political systems, many of which are rivals, to delude people. This is mad, frankly.

Hasn't it occurred to you that, if there really were such a conspiracy, the conspirators would hardly be likely to be so careless as to leave the real numbers on the internet, where you could read them and work out the truth?

STOP PANICKING.

I'll stop because nobody likes what I'm doing. But I still don't get why I'm wrong.

 

[Cooky]

Maybe when everyone calms down, later, someone can patiently explain why:

• 2061 completed cases
• 1016 dead
• 1045 recovered

...Are the wrong numbers to use for Italy.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

Please tell me the recovery rate for Italy.

Since there are lot of people still sick, that is impossible to know.

 

[Cooky]

Since there are lot of people still sick, that is impossible to know.

With that logic, we can say the exact same for mortality rate.

It makes no goddam sense to me to include the *still sick* in our calculations, because we don'tknow which way they're going to go. We should only be counting recovered vs. deceased.

 

[Revoltingest]

I'll stop because nobody likes what I'm doing. But I still don't get why I'm wrong.

My thoughts on this....
Your math is fine. But the statistics you reason from have a problem.
It would make sense if the deaths & recoveries ratio were the total
picture of the patient outcome. Alas, there are unknowns about
those verified to have it, & those who have it but are unaware.
The dust needs to settle.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

Landon, stop and think for just a second.

It appears that this virus has about a 14 day cycle, possibly a little longer. It was discovered in China last NOVEMBER, which is a great deal longer than 14 days ago. If your numbers were even vaguely correct, the number of deaths in China would now be in the tens of thousands -- and they are not even close.

China right now 80,815 confirmed case, 64,152 recoveries 3,177 deaths. That's a little under 4%. Then you have to remember that there are certainly more cases that nobody knows about, because the symptoms were slight enough that people just stayed in bed till they got better. So that brings that 4% DOWN by an unknown, but likely substantial, amount.

Stay calm. Panic isn't going to help anything, and stress weakens your immune system.

 

[Cooky]

Landon, stop and think for just a second.

It appears that this virus has about a 14 day cycle, possibly a little longer. It was discovered in China last NOVEMBER, which is a great deal longer than 14 days ago. If your numbers were even vaguely correct, the number of deaths in China would now be in the tens of thousands -- and they are not even close.

China right now 80,815 confirmed case, 64,152 recoveries 3,177 deaths. That's a little under 4%. Then you have to remember that there are certainly more cases that nobody knows about, because the symptoms were slight enough that people just stayed in bed till they got better. So that brings that 4% DOWN by an unknown, but likely substantial, amount.

Stay calm. Panic isn't going to help anything, and stress weakens your immune system.

Isn't there two strains of COVID-19 now..? We can't say that what happened in China is the same as what's going to happen in Italy anymore, since this thing mutated, right?

...Just a thought.

Another thought is that there seems to be a lot of motivation in keeping people "calm".

 

[Heyo]

Maybe when everyone calms down, later, someone can patiently explain why:

• 2061 completed cases
• 1016 dead
• 1045 recovered

...Are the wrong numbers to use for Italy.

Because you misunderstand what "mortality rate" means. If it were as you think it is, herpes has a mortality rate of 100%. (You can't get cured of herpes. The germ stays in your body but you only show symptoms if your immune system is weakened.)
That's why the mortality rate is given as the number of deaths vs. the number of infections - not the number of cured.
And the number of deaths may even be exaggerated as it is not even clear that those who died, died of Covid19 or an other cause that got worse because of Covid19. (Pneumonia may often be the real cause in older patients.)

 

[PureX]

According to the above chart, of you get coronavirus, you have a 50% chance of survival. And a 50% chance of dying.

This is unprecedented.

You are seriously misreading it. According to the chart, in Italy, you would have a 1 in 15 change of dying.

 

[Sunstone]

Based on your math abilities, Landon, I'm going to predict you support Mr. Trump.