The present study used the state-of-the-art method of actuarial science to estimate excess mortality
in the federal states of Germany in the three pandemic years (04/2020 to 03/2023). The estim-
ated excess mortality showed substantially variance across the federal states. The exploration of
several key state-specific quantities revealed that only two quantities showed a strong correlational
relationship with the observed excess mortality: COVID-19 deaths and the COVID-19 vaccination
rate. While the excess mortality in the first and second pandemic year was strongly correlated
with the reported number of deaths and infections, in the second and third pandemic years, an
increasingly stronger relationship between excess mortality and the vaccination rate was observed.
Contrary to what would be expected with an effective vaccination, positive instead of negative
correlations were observed: the more vaccinations were administered in a federal state, the greater
the increase in excess mortality.