Trump

[Saint Frankenstein]

Well this is unexpected.....
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/73ce...up-india-asks-gods-help-trump-win-us-election

Fascists supporting a right-wing demagogue (because Trump hates Muslims - or at least pretends to in public to win over the gullible - and so do the far-right Hindu nutcases), what's new? India has gone bonkers in recent decades and their governing party is involved with terrorism and other human rights abuses.

 

[james dixon]

What planet are you living on? Unemployment is higher than its been in the last 30 years

The Dumpy Trump may make your nightmares come true but in the real world I found this~~~~~

The U.S. unemployment rate just fell below 5% for the first time since 2008.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/06/news/economy/obama-us-jobs/
​

-

 

[james dixon]

More bad news for the Dumpy Trump crowd​

The number of workers and, more importantly, their productivity help determine the health of the U.S. economy. Consumer spending in the US rose to about 62% of GDP in 1960, where it stayed until about 1981, and has since risen to 71% in 2013. Throughout its history, the United States has experienced steady growth in the labor force, a phenomenon that is both cause and effect of almost constant economic expansion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States

 

[Revoltingest]

There is no "the unemployment rate".
In fact, there are several.
The rate Obama likes is most optimistic, one which excludes "discouraged workers".

But there are other measures of economic health too.
It also pays to see if statistical claims pass the smell test, ie, do the conflict with the personal experience of many.
Even in my relatively recession proof area, there is trouble....
- Skilled help is in short supply. Many workers left the area, & students graduate ill prepared to work.
- Vacancy rates remain high (since 2001 when the towers fell), & rents are low for manufacturing, the trades, & less than Class A office space.
- Venture capital is scarce.
- Bank lending is tighter.
- Commercial tenants see reduced business.
- On one street where I have a property, half the square footage is vacant.
- Many businesses are still downsizing, & moving to smaller cheaper spaces.

Obama's fans will tell me that what I see is statistically not happening.
But when fellow investors & our tenants see the same......I smell statistical baloney.

 

[james dixon]

e......I smell statistical baloney.

It was all those links you included with your post that turned me around. Now I just believe in bla, bla, bla, blobbing with you -

 

[Revoltingest]

It was all those links you included with your post that turned me around. Now I just believe in bla, bla, bla, blobbing with you -

In discussions, as opposed to debates, I'm just opining.
You don't find my experience & observations cromulent,
but I've spotted many an error or fib with my reality check.

Btw, I considered offering criteria for the various measures
of unemployment, but decided not to because the more
knowledgeable posters here already know this.

 

[sun rise]

There is no "the unemployment rate".
In fact, there are several.
The rate Obama likes is most optimistic, one which excludes "discouraged workers".

But there are other measures of economic health too.
It also pays to see if statistical claims pass the smell test, ie, do the conflict with the personal experience of many.
Even in my relatively recession proof area, there is trouble....
- Skilled help is in short supply. Many workers left the area, & students graduate ill prepared to work.
- Vacancy rates remain high (since 2001 when the towers fell), & rents are low for manufacturing, the trades, & less than Class A office space.
- Venture capital is scarce.
- Bank lending is tighter.
- Commercial tenants see reduced business.
- On one street where I have a property, half the square footage is vacant.
- Many businesses are still downsizing, & moving to smaller cheaper spaces.

Obama's fans will tell me that what I see is statistically not happening.
But when fellow investors & our tenants see the same......I smell statistical baloney.

To talk about labor statistics, the "smell" test you mention smells. Or to put it another way, my experience is that the labor market is very tight right now with anyone who wants a job and has marketable skills can easily find a job. To say that one person's experience is as valid as that of statistics is bunkum. And by that measure your smell smells bad to me.

Speaking of discouraged workers who are defined as "(2) Includes those who did not actively look for work in the prior 4 weeks for reasons such as thinks no work available, could not find work, lacks schooling or training, employer thinks too young or old, and other types of discrimination." you can see that age discrimination and other factors are involved in someone being "discouraged". And those numbers are easily available which show that the year-over-year numbers are improving http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm

Of course politicians like to use facts and statistics which bolster their point-of-view. "How to Lie With Statistics" should be required in school but that's not unique to politicians. We ALL do that.

Now there are indeed structural problems in the American economy with the .1% getting ever more wealthy sucking up middle-class income and insisting that the economy demands 99.9% must work for low wages and no benefits or else and that is something that Bernie Sanders talks about all the time.

 

[sun rise]

An addendum. U1-U6 measures of unemployment http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

 

[Revoltingest]

To talk about labor statistics, the "smell" test you mention smells. Or to put it another way, my experience is that the labor market is very tight right now with anyone who wants a job and has marketable skills can easily find a job. To say that one person's experience is as valid as that of statistics is bunkum. And by that measure your smell smells bad to me.

You misunderstand (a common canine problem).
The labor market is tight here to, but only for the better workers.
Those with problems, who were able to find work a decade ago, are having great trouble.

Speaking of discouraged workers who are defined as "(2) Includes those who did not actively look for work in the prior 4 weeks for reasons such as thinks no work available, could not find work, lacks schooling or training, employer thinks too young or old, and other types of discrimination." you can see that age discrimination and other factors are involved in someone being "discouraged". And those numbers are easily available which show that the year-over-year numbers are improving http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm
Of course politicians like to use facts and statistics which bolster their point-of-view. "How to Lie With Statistics" should be required in school but that's not unique to politicians. We ALL do that.
Now there are indeed structural problems in the American economy with the .1% getting ever more wealthy sucking up middle-class income and insisting that the economy demands 99.9% must work for low wages and no benefits or else and that is something that Bernie Sanders talks about all the time.

The structural problems are worsening too.

 

[Adramelek]

The Dumpy Trump may make your nightmares come true but in the real world I found this~~~~~

The U.S. unemployment rate just fell below 5% for the first time since 2008.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/06/news/economy/obama-us-jobs/
​

-

Yeah, you keep living in your Obamarama bubble, this same time next year when the truth comes out about the realities of corruption, deception, arrogance of the past 8 years under the regime of your fearless leader (the Clintons will be included) that bubble that you and others live in will burst like a gaseous turd filled balloon. And you are correct, the truth shall indeed make you free, or in some cases, the truth shall make you flee.

 

[metis]

Yeah, you keep living in your Obamarama bubble, this same time next year when the truth comes out about the realities of corruption, deception, arrogance of the past 8 years under the regime of your fearless leader (the Clintons will be included) that bubble that you and others live in will burst like a gaseous turd filled balloon. And you are correct, the truth shall indeed make you free, or in some cases, the truth shall make you flee.

That's quite a number of assumptions, but I would hazard a guess that most Americans buy into "innocent until proven guilty"-- at least I hope they do.

 

[Adramelek]

The AP reports that Donald Trump now has 1,238 pledged delegates and has secured the republican nomination for president of the United States.

 

[Guy Threepwood]

I'm not a huge fan of Trump, but congrats to him for securing the nomination despite all predictions. He put in the most effort, got the best result, while spending the least amount of money- his own hard earned money at that, not other people's.

We need a little more of that efficiency, productivity, in government

and when the choice is Hugo Chavez in a pant suit...

 

[Revoltingest]

I'm not a huge fan of Trump, but congrats to him for securing the nomination despite all predictions. He put in the most effort, got the best result, while spending the least amount of money- his own hard earned money at that, not other people's.

We need a little more of that efficiency, productivity, in government

and when the choice is Hugo Chavez in a pant suit...

Hugo takes great offense at that!

Anyway, Trump's success is even more remarkable with the media so aligned against him.
I wonder how it is that major news media, eg, Huffington Post, NPR, can openly campaign
against him & for Hillary without triggering campaign finance laws? In the past, such "in kind"
contributions have been treated as violations (when they favored Pubs).

 

[Guy Threepwood]

Hugo takes great offense at that!

Anyway, Trump's success is even more remarkable with the media so aligned against him.
I wonder how it is that major news media, eg, Huffington Post, NPR, can openly campaign
against him & for Hillary without triggering campaign finance laws? In the past, such "in kind"
contributions have been treated as violations (when they favored Pubs).

sorry Hugo, that was below the belt!

Yes, it's OK apparently to use public funding to openly support a party on NPR, or to decree that you can't work for a Detroit auto co, without having a slice of your pay fund a political party, as long as it's the Dems

At the very least, it shows the huge disconnect between the public and media, nobody was more surprised than they were. We were all supposed to hate Trump.
I don't think they can see past the reflections in their own pc bubbles.

 

[Revoltingest]

sorry Hugo, that was below the belt!

Yes, it's OK apparently to use public funding to openly support a party on NPR, or to decree that you can't work for a Detroit auto co, without having a slice of your pay fund a political party, as long as it's the Dems

At the very least, it shows the huge disconnect between the public and media, nobody was more surprised than they were. We were all supposed to hate Trump.
I don't think they can see past the reflections in their own pc bubbles.

If the Dems ran someone better than The Hildabeast, I could very well hate The Donald.
But all things are relative.
She is a productive opponent for him.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

I'm not a huge fan of Trump, but congrats to him for securing the nomination despite all predictions. He put in the most effort, got the best result, while spending the least amount of money- his own hard earned money at that, not other people's.

He actually didn't front nearly as much of his own money as he claims he did. And not only that, he loaned his own money to his own campaign so he could not only have that money back but also collect on the interest from it.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/donald-trump-fec-fundraising-214838

Donald Trump often says that he does not get enough credit for self-funding his presidential campaign. But as his recent financial disclosure reveals, he is not funding most of it.

Instead, the majority of his campaign funding comes from donors. This quarter, the campaign received 73,942 “unsolicited donations” totaling about $3.7 million, according to a release from the campaign. That accounts for most of the $5.8 million the campaign has taken in to date.

Trump has contributed to financing his campaign through in-kind gifts and loans.

In the third quarter, he made about $100,000 in in-kind contributions to his campaign.

 

[Guy Threepwood]

If the Dems ran someone better than The Hildabeast, I could very well hate The Donald.
But all things are relative.
She is a productive opponent for him.

You're not suggesting Bernie I hope!?

 

[Revoltingest]

You're not suggesting Bernie I hope!?

Oh, no.....I'm saying that The HIldabeast is the ideal opponent to serve The Donald.
Her stiff scripted style & checkered history are perfect fodder for the smart & snarky outsider, Trump.

 

[Guy Threepwood]

Oh, no.....I'm saying that The HIldabeast is the ideal opponent to serve The Donald.
Her stiff scripted style & checkered history are perfect fodder for the smart & snarky outsider, Trump.

Yes, I think he is relishing this matchup. There are going to be some entertaining debates this year!

I think he was right about one thing; Hillary lacks his energy, enthusiasm for this stuff, I get the impression she's a little tired already, dragging herself through this process. I don't think she's ever had to work this hard for anything.

Love or hate him, Donald is a dynamo even at his age, I certainly couldn't do it