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War in the Ukraine?

Copernicus

Copernicus

Industrial Strength Linguist
It does look likely now that Russia will invade eastern Ukraine, possibly within the next few days. If that happens, there is likely to be fighting. It appears that Russians have already invaded a little village just outside of Crimea and seized a gas station there. Some think that they are trying to provoke initial violence to use as a pretext for invasion. Ukraine is also accusing Russia of sending agents provocateurs into eastern Ukraine, which is probably true. US policy still seems to be to try to head off an invasion, but they have no influence with Putin, who seems to be living in his own nostalgic fantasy of a reconstructed Soviet Union.

Russia vetoed a UN referendum to condemn the Crimea vote, but China, which usually supports Russia in the Security Council, pointedly abstained. Right now, Russia is diplomatically isolated, but it can still do much to harm the world's economy. I think that Putin is really banking on his ability to bully NATO, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas and oil. Turkey, which gets half of its hydrocarbon-based energy needs from Russia, is notably silent on what is happening to its north. The US currently has a battle group in the Black Sea, but they pose no serious threat to Russia. They are only there to reassure central European NATO members.
 
MD

MD

qualiaphile
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Copernicus

Copernicus

Industrial Strength Linguist
I would rather see McCain in therapy. :)

I still think that there is a strong chance Putin will take eastern Ukraine, but he may be hesitating because the financial consequences may look more daunting than he originally thought. Russia is no longer a self-contained economy with vassal states like East Germany and Czechoslovakia to supply its industrial needs. It depends on oil and gas revenues to pay for materials needed to stimulate economic growth, and it cannot simply cut off Europe without suffering serious consequences. So Putin can strut and posture all he wants, but he has to be hearing some nervous voices now among his rich friends. Russia is essentially a country that, like China, depends on crony capitalism to keep itself afloat. In fact, Russia is probably a textbook case--the very definition of "crony capitalism". The people targeted by US sanctions first were essentially the Russian oligarchs that gained their wealth by riding on the coattails of Vladimir Putin.

Nevertheless, Putin has set in motion forces that he does not fully control. One of those is the very powerful tribal politics of ethnocentric prejudice. He has made it a contest between right-wing Ukrainian nationalists and right-wing Russian nationalists. That is, he has energized the ugliest components of the society that he dominates. Russia is a country that contains about 180 separate nationalities, only one of which is "ethnic Russian". Russian is the trade language, but the country is multicultural. Right wing pro-Russian fanatics are going to be a huge problem for him and future Russian leaders as time goes on. He may conquer Ukraine militarily, just as we conquered Iraq. But the future occupation of that country is going to be a serious problem, just as our occupation of Iraq (and our current occupation of Afghanistan) was for us. If he invades eastern Ukraine, can he stop there? I'm not so sure.
 
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Revoltingest

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Copernicus said:
I would rather see McCain in therapy. :)
Click to expand...
I'd prefer retirement.

I still think that there is a strong chance Putin will take eastern Ukraine, but he may be hesitating because the financial consequences may look more daunting than he originally thought. Russia is no longer a self-contained economy with vassal states like East Germany and Czechoslovakia to supply its industrial needs. It depends on oil and gas revenues to pay for materials needed to stimulate economic growth, and it cannot simply cut off Europe without suffering serious consequences. So Putin can strut and posture all he wants, but he has to be hearing some nervous voices now among his rich friends. Russia is essentially a country that, like China, depends on crony capitalism to keep itself afloat. In fact, Russia is probably a textbook case--the very definition of "crony capitalism". The people targeted by US sanctions first were essentially the Russian oligarchs that gained their wealth by riding on the coattails of Vladimir Putin.
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I disagree that they depend on crony capitalism. It's more that this style of corruption is a vestige of transitioning from authoritarian socialism with a large black market to capitalism. They'd do just fine, even better, without crony capitalism.

Nevertheless, Putin has set in motion forces that he does not fully control. One of those is the very powerful tribal politics of ethnocentric prejudice. He has made it a contest between right-wing Ukrainian nationalists and right-wing Russian nationalists. That is, he has energized the ugliest components of the society that he dominates. Russia is a country that contains about 180 separate nationalities, only one of which is "ethnic Russian". Russian is the trade language, but the country is multicultural. Right wing pro-Russian fanatics are going to be a huge problem for him and future Russian leaders as time goes on. He may conquer Ukraine militarily, just as we conquered Iraq. But the future occupation of that country is going to be a serious problem, just as our occupation of Iraq (and our current occupation of Afghanistan) was for us. If he invades eastern Ukraine, can he stop there? I'm not so sure.
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I think Putin is smarter & more methodical than you give him credit for. Crimea was easy pickins because of Ukraine's political meltdown & Crimea's populace being more Russian than Ukrainian.
 
Copernicus

Copernicus

Industrial Strength Linguist
Revoltingest said:
I disagree that they depend on crony capitalism. It's more that this style of corruption is a vestige of transitioning from authoritarian socialism with a large black market to capitalism. They'd do just fine, even better, without crony capitalism.
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Every society would do better with less corruption, but the wealth and power in Russia has been concentrated in the hands of Putin's personal friends and acquaintances. He makes Chris Christie look like a saint.

Revoltingest said:
I think Putin is smarter & more methodical than you give him credit for. Crimea was easy pickins because of Ukraine's political meltdown & Crimea's populace being more Russian than Ukrainian.
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That isn't what made it so easy for him. Crimea was historically part of Russia, not Ukraine. Putin seems to be part of the movement known as Eurasianism in Russia, and Eurasianists have wanted to restore Crimea to Russia ever since Khrushchev shifted it into Ukraine. The population there is between 50% and 60% Russian, but that doesn't mean that most people there would have actually voted to join Russia. Putin's recent carefully-engineered "election" did not tell us how the majority would have voted in a fair election. Not everyone who speaks Russian actually favors union with Russia. Putin probably would still have won that vote, but he had no intention of letting it depend on truth.
 
Sultan Of Swing

Sultan Of Swing

Well-Known Member
Ukraine crisis: Kiev reaches out to eastern rebels

Even after this "Geneva deal" between Russia, Ukraine and the West, the Eastern Ukranian pro-Russian forces are refusing to leave the buildings and remain in occupation.

Question is, is Russia's agreement to this Geneva deal merely a ploy to make it seem like Russia is against the occupation officially, while behind closed doors they are telling the pro-Russians to stay right where they are? This could just be baseless speculation of course, but if Russia truly are wanting the pro-Russians to stop, I would have expected them to have done so.
 
metis

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
My guess is that Putin doesn't want the Ukraine to affiliate too closely with the west both for political and economic reasons, and is willing to monitor events at this point to see just how far the new government is willing to go in that direction. If they do, I have no real doubt he'll invade and at least take over the eastern part.

This is one reason why McCain's idea of supplying arms to the new government is nothing short of insanity on steroids as it would almost without a doubt push Putin to invade and maybe even go as far as taking over all the Ukraine. He would have too much to lose if he didn't.

Obama's playing his cards right.
 
esmith

esmith

Veteran Member
I suspect Putin would like land access to the Crimea and if he wants it I see no way to stop him. The EU is not going to hurt their economy over a small piece of the Ukraine, thus sanctions are probably out. The US has no economic or geopolitical reason to get involved unless some politician does something that will give Putin the excuse he needs to continue his desire to re-establish the former USSR. It appears that the population of Russia is with him.
 
Copernicus

Copernicus

Industrial Strength Linguist
esmith said:
I suspect Putin would like land access to the Crimea and if he wants it I see no way to stop him. The EU is not going to hurt their economy over a small piece of the Ukraine, thus sanctions are probably out. The US has no economic or geopolitical reason to get involved unless some politician does something that will give Putin the excuse he needs to continue his desire to re-establish the former USSR. It appears that the population of Russia is with him.
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I think that you are jumping to a hasty conclusion here. It is far from certain that the "population of Russia is with him." Annexing the Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine is a popular idea, but not necessarily by doing it through the use of force. If Putin does invade, his popularity could suffer, especially if there are a lot of deaths and injuries. Furthermore, his aggressive posture is already hurting the Russian economy to the point that they are staring at a possible recession. $65 billion has drained out of the economy in the first quarter of the year. Russia may largely control energy supplies to Europe, but it can't afford to cut off its nose to spite its face. That is where the right wing nationalist Putin is headed, and it is causing considerable turmoil in their economy.
 
Sultan Of Swing

Sultan Of Swing

Well-Known Member
Russia will respond if its interests in Ukraine are attacked, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said, drawing a parallel with the 2008 Georgian war.

In his interview with Russia Today, Mr Lavrov said it was "quite telling" that Kiev had re-launched its "anti-terrorist" operation in the east on Tuesday during a visit by US Vice-President Joe Biden.

"If our interests, our legitimate interests, the interests of Russians have been attacked directly, like they were in South Ossetia for example, I do not see any other way but to respond in full accordance with international law," Mr Lavrov said.

- BBC News - Ukraine crisis: Russia 'to respond if its interests' attacked

...Is there any way to stop what seems to be the inevitable? :(
 
Copernicus

Copernicus

Industrial Strength Linguist
Sultan Of Swing said:
Russia will respond if its interests in Ukraine are attacked, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said, drawing a parallel with the 2008 Georgian war.

In his interview with Russia Today, Mr Lavrov said it was "quite telling" that Kiev had re-launched its "anti-terrorist" operation in the east on Tuesday during a visit by US Vice-President Joe Biden.

"If our interests, our legitimate interests, the interests of Russians have been attacked directly, like they were in South Ossetia for example, I do not see any other way but to respond in full accordance with international law," Mr Lavrov said.

- BBC News - Ukraine crisis: Russia 'to respond if its interests' attacked

...Is there any way to stop what seems to be the inevitable? :(
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I doubt it, but that is because Russia seems fully determined to invade. The pro-Russia "local militia" occupying those buildings appear to be led by Spetsnaz (Russian special forces), whose role appears to be to provoke a violent reaction from the Ukrainian military. It looks like they finally succeeded in doing this by murdering some locals and torturing a local politician before throwing his body in a river. The Russians already have their field hospitals set up to treat casualties.
 
Sultan Of Swing

Sultan Of Swing

Well-Known Member
shahz said:
Pro Russian insurgents killed by Ukranian forces, it's all but certain Russia will now intervene

Ukraine clashes kill 2 as Russia ramps up military exercises - World - CBC News

Ukraine crisis: Vladimir Putin fury means war edges closer as up to five pro-Russians killed in checkpoint battle - Mirror Online

The west should have sent a much stronger military message to Russia when this initially happened. Diplomacy has failed.
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But what though? What exactly could the West have done?
 
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