Will Trump Bow Out of the Presidential Race?

[Acim]

This morning, there are reports that at least a few prominent Republican politicians are now calling on Trump to bow out of the presidential race. If the movement continues and grows, do you think Trump will bow out? Why or why not?

I do not think he will. If this had come up in primary, I think it possible. Priebus would've sought to have him eliminated, whereas instead during primary Priebus was willing to give him fair, fighting chance.
So, main reason not is because it's too close to date of elections to pursue another path.

Pubs saying "bow out" need to offer something that a) makes sense as new path, b) appeases the millions that legitimately want Trump, and c) ensures a fighting chance to defeat Hillary. The last item may be the same as the first, but I'm not even sure how one steps aside. Like if Trump did, then Pence automatically becomes candidate? If so, that would be kind of cool, and he (Pence) could make it clear that whatever Trump was about, he supports and is how he'll proceed going forward. If that is viable, I think it could actually lead to easy defeat of Hillary as "neverTrump" Pubs would likely be back on board, but possible that some die-hard supporters are loss.

BONUS QUESTION ONE: If Trump were to step down, would that be a good or a bad thing for Republicans in down ticket races?

Bad thing, I would guess. It's not like it would be spun as wonderful by all. It would take a serious campaign, that Trump is publicly willing to go along with, to make it work well for Pubs. Instead, I think MSM/Dems would spin it as Pub party is in such turmoil right now, they ought not to have anyone that is elected. And as long as Pubs are scrambling, not unified, it would reinforce that message. I'm sure MSM would have zero problem finding Pub types that claim turmoil is going on within their own ranks.

BONUS QUESTION TWO: If Trump were to step down, would that be a good or a bad thing for Clinton?

Answered this above. If Pence takes over, and seemingly die-hard Trump supporters do like him, then I think Clinton would lose in a landslide.

I think the reason the tape was released so late was so Trump wouldn't have a chance to bow out, as in Dem strategists realize Pubs are stuck with him and so hoping it will cost him votes.

 

[columbus]

Priebus would've sought to have him eliminated, whereas instead during primary Priebus was willing to give him fair, fighting chance.

Actually he did try to get rid of Trump. I think it blew up in Priebus' face.
Shortly after the Colorado GOP stole all the primary votes for Cruz and Wyoming almost all of them, Indiana delivered a punishing rebuke that put Trump over the top.
Tom

 

[Acim]

Actually he did try to get rid of Trump. I think it blew up in Priebus' face.

Where's the news (links) on that?

 

[columbus]

Where's the news (links) on that?

Links to what? My opinion that Colorado gave all the delegates to Cruz? My opinion that my fellow Hoosiers responded angrily to the GOP trying to steal the nomination?
What?
Tom

 

[Acim]

Links to what? My opinion that Colorado gave all the delegates to Cruz? My opinion that my fellow Hoosiers responded angrily to the GOP trying to steal the nomination?
What?
Tom

Priebus tried to get rid of Trump.

 

[columbus]

Priebus tried to get rid of Trump.

I doubt that you will find a YouTube of any of those people admitting it.
But the fact is that Trump got only a delegate or two out of Colorado and Wyoming. He had closer to half the Rep voters in support. The Hoosiers around me knew all that and believed that Priebus and Co. were stealing the nomination and were angry about it. The state Indiana state officials were also trying to throw the primary to Cruz. Heck, even our governor (now Trumps VP Pence) endorsed Cruz in a last ditch effort to keep Trump out.
Really, all this stuff is easy to find out if you want to actually know.
Tom

 

[Augustus]

Why are so many people practically certain that the election is a done deal for Clinton?

It's pretty much a toss up as the polls are within the margin of error. It's still game on as both candidates have a good chance of winning.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

Why are so many people practically certain that the election is a done deal for Clinton?

It's pretty much a toss up as the polls are within the margin of error. It's still game on as both candidates have a good chance of winning.

I doubt the polls are currently reflecting the number of Republicans who are giving up on Trump after last night.

 

[Sunstone]

Why are so many people practically certain that the election is a done deal for Clinton?

It's pretty much a toss up as the polls are within the margin of error. It's still game on as both candidates have a good chance of winning.

I agree we don't know who's going to win at this point, and -- in a very significant sense -- we won't know until the vote is in on election day. But, still, I find it interesting that the New York Times was reporting even before the "Open Mic" video that internal Republican polls were showing a greater spread between Clinton and Trump than the public polls. And the video seems to be getting traction to a degree we haven't seen before in the case of Trump. I'm wondering if Clinton does win, whether historians will look back on very recent events and declare them the turning point in the race. Time will tell.

 

[Augustus]

I doubt the polls are currently reflecting the number of Republicans who are giving up on Trump after last night.

Perhaps, but I reckon the effects will be less than many are anticipating. Will see in 2 weeks after any initial 'bounce'.

Anyway there is still plenty of time until the election for more unpredictable stuff to happen to either candidate.

 

[freethinker44]

Perhaps.
Who knows if voters will dislike someone simply because they share party affiliation with him.

It's not just sharing party affiliation, it's them supporting Trump that hurts.
They're running ads about a GOP candidate around here where it is Trump saying something awful and then cut to her saying "I support Trump".
It makes her look really bad.

 

[Augustus]

I agree we don't know who's going to win at this point, and -- in a very significant sense -- we won't know until the vote is in on election day. But, still, I find it interesting that the New York Times was reporting even before the "Open Mic" video that internal Republican polls were showing a greater spread between Clinton and Trump than the public polls. And the video seems to be getting traction to a degree we haven't seen before in the case of Trump. I'm wondering if Clinton does win, whether historians will look back on very recent events and declare them the turning point in the race. Time will tell.

I get the feeling that Trump might do better in the election than he is doing in the polls.

As a controversial candidate, there is a chance that people will vote for him but will not be willing to admit in public that they will vote for him. This seems to have been the case in the Brexit poll, where all poling data, even form the 'leave' campaign suggested they would lose.

I might be completely wrong though as I have no idea about the American voter's psyche as regards thing like this.

 

[Notanumber]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/politics/donald-trump-apology.html?_r=0


I liked what he said here “Hillary Clinton and her kind have run our country into the ground,” Mr. Trump said. “I’ve said some foolish things, but there’s a big difference between the words and actions of other people. Bill Clinton has actually abused women, and Hillary has bullied, attacked, shamed and intimidated his victims.”

Mr. Trump then turned the focus to his second debate against Mrs. Clinton, less than 48 hours away.

Ever the performer and intimidator, he added, with a hint of menace in his voice: “We will discuss this more in the coming days. See you at the debate on Sunday.”

 

[Shadow Wolf]

there is a chance that people will vote for him but will not be willing to admit in public that they will vote for him.

I don't really see that being an issue. Rather, I can see a proud fraternity of Trump voters sprouting up, especially if he looses.

 

[Shadow Wolf]

I liked what he said here “Hillary Clinton and her kind have run our country into the ground,” Mr. Trump said. “I’ve said some foolish things, but there’s a big difference between the words and actions of other people. Bill Clinton has actually abused women, and Hillary has bullied, attacked, shamed and intimidated his victims.”

The lying hypocrite speaks again, as with Trump we are dealing with not just words, but even actions as there are at least three women who have pressed charges of sexual assault against him, including his ex wife and the SO of one of his business partners, and another that also involves his pedophile buddy Epstein.

 

[Notanumber]

Can’t wait for the next debate.

Let’s see what happens on Sunday.

 

[Papoon]

I doubt that Trump will bow out.

The circus is no accident IMO.

How many Americans are currently wondering about why Russia is now conscripting 40 million citizens for military and civil defence training ?

Germany is preparing for troop deployment - in preparation for a catastrophic event.

There is massive mobilisation of military hardware and personnel happening right now in the US.

Go figure.

 

[ShivaFan]

Today at Republican establishment Paul Ryan's "rally" in Wisconsin, when Ryan came on stage the attendees angry at his GOPe betrayal of Trump and the base, the crowd started shouting - then screaming - "Shame on you! Shame on you!" and "Globalist traitor!" and "You betrayed TRUMP!" where it was so bad he had to cut his "speech" short and rush off the stage and be escorted by security as he tried to escape the angry voters.

 

[columbus]

Today at Republican establishment Paul Ryan's "rally" in Wisconsin, when Ryan came on stage the attendees angry at his GOPe betrayal of Trump and the base, the crowd started shouting - then screaming - "Shame on you! Shame on you!" and "Globalist traitor!" and "You betrayed TRUMP!"

That is unfortunate in my opinion.
But it does appear that the GOP is royally screwed.
I remember well when the Republicans had many smart and principled conservative statesmen. They seem to be on the verge of being stamped out by Trump and his supporters.
Tom

 

[Sapiens]

One of the main reasons I pay attention to 538 is that they understand whatever it is you wrote, and I don't.
Even there though, I pay more attention to trends than the specific numbers.
Tom

You do understand, that's the slope of the line, or the trend.