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So it looks like we may be going into Syria (?)

Aquitaine

Well-Known Member
Should we stand on principle or do the greater good?

Let me lay this out, chemical weapons killed innocents, so now we want to launch missles to do much more of the same?

When there is retaliation, whose hand will that blood be on?

When faced with a lose / lose decision, it is best to do nothing.

If there was a good chance to accomplish a greater good, that would be the best time to do something.

What I don't get though, is that the UK never cared about Depleted Uranium and White Phosphorus being used in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the US never cared when they were spraying Agent Orange over Vietnam. Hell if I remember correctly the US helped provide Saddam with the chemicals he used to gas the Kurds with.

All of which affected innocent civilians. But now they're appalled at the apparent use of chemical weapons via Assad's regime?

 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
But that's the problem: exactly what is the "greater good" in this situation? If we do something, there are consequences; but if we do nothing, there are also consequences.

As for me, I don't know what "the answer" is.
 

Terrywoodenpic

Oldest Heretic
The UK parliament has voted against military force.
It would require a major change in the situation for there to be another vote.

As much as we might wish to help against chemical attacks on the population, there is almost no chance that force will change the outcome.

The people of the middle east seem to have no fear of death when ordered to fight by their leaders, and are easily caught up in the hysteria of the moment. Perhaps their religious and tribal enmities have not yet been tempered by reality or reason. since their acquisition of great oil wealth and the resurgence of Islam, they have felt no need to subscribe to world norms in settling their disputes.

It might be distressing but the passing of time and many lives, might be the only permanent solution to their problems. These solutions must be their own.

Perhaps the best we can hope for is stability ... not an equitable outcome.
 
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Aquitaine

Well-Known Member
The UK parliament has voted against military force.
It would require a major change in the situation for there to be another vote.

As much as we might wish to help against chemical attacks on the population, there is almost no chance that force will change the outcome.

The people of the middle east seem to have no fear of death when ordered to fight by their leaders, and are easily caught up in the hysteria of the moment. Perhaps their religious and tribal enmities have not yet been tempered by reality or reason. since their acquisition of great oil wealth and the resurgence of Islam, they have felt no need to subscribe to world norms in settling their disputes.

It might be distressing but the passing of time and many lives, might be the only permanent solution to their problems. These solutions must be their own.

Perhaps the best we can hope for is stability ... not an equitable outcome.

I'm so happy Tony Cameron's little war fantasy got shot down in Parliament. I also heard Gove has been slagging off the Tory rebels, branding them "cowards" - yeah, let's see him go fight in Syria then if he wants to play Hero.
 

Caladan

Agnostic Pantheist
Well since I've seen various posts and replies which contain various misunderstandings I've decided to throw my two cents into this jar as well.

First. Israel.
The general consensus in Israeli public (and strategic) opinion is that although Assad was considered an enemy, under his regime our Northeastern front has been the most stable of all our fronts, for absolute decades. Under the Syrian regime, there is no recollection of any significant violence coming on the side of the Syrian border and spilling into the Israeli side of the Golan Heights. Furthermore, to those brainwashed members who speak of Israel's interest in this conflict, be mindful that the removal of Assad certainly is not perceived as a strategic desire in general, and is even seen as counterproductive. The border with Syria today is unstable in ways which it hasn't been for possibly over 40 years. Violence from the fighting between rebels and Syrian troops is spilling into Israel, and possibly hundreds of Syrians have been treated in Israeli hospitals in the area, as they flee the violence.
In addition, it is interesting to note that it was America which has torpedoed Israel's effort to establish peace negotiations with Assad several years ago.

When it comes to Obama's (and others) so called red line of using chemical attacks, the rationale behind such dramatic declarations reek of sheer lack ability to address the broader picture. Some estimates put the death toll in the Syrian civil war at well over 100,000, perhaps even 120,000. Is the president of America suggesting that while over a hundred thousands of people have already been slaughtered, and millions have turned into homeless refugees, his red line is the death of a couple of hundreds more? those who happened to die from Sarin gas? That logic stinks of strategic cowardice, and complacency with the brutality of the Syrian regime which has de facto been unleashing a genocide for over 2 years now.

Intervention wise, there is no elegant solution, and the whole stuttering of nations like the UK, France, and most of all the US exemplifies their hesitations, doubts, and even lack of faith in their own capabilities (including the capability to hold a public front back home).
The cold, and strategic side of my mind says a simple thing. Neither the rebels or Assad's Syrian forces seem to show humane goals in general. Both sides commit atrocities that defy logic. And both contain anti-Western, anti democratic, and in many cases radical elements.
Let these two sides weaken each other. This Sunni-Shia rift is reaching a climax now on the Syrian (and also Lebanese) theatre. Not only does this conflict weaken various hostile parties, but this is a chance to give dozens of Islamic states, which have been involved in severe tensions and proxy wars with each other a chance to begin resolving, or at least addressing this deeply rooted internal conflict inside the Muslim world, which by now has caused the lost millions of lives, and millions of refugees in only a mater of several decades.

If of course, the west and Sunni states decide that they can not stand idly as a genocide is being committed inside Syria, then the optimal strategy seems to be a more active support of the Syrian opposition, and as Sterling said earlier: Softening the targets, paving the way for a more successful resistance which is going to be won, not by deploying American troops, but by the Syrian opposition forces themselves.
 
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metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
I do believe the reality is that the congressional leaders on both sides have mouthed that they want congressional approval and yet don't at all seem anxious to do it because it then would put them on the record.
 

LuisDantas

Aura of atheification
Premium Member
Sigh. I just realized that this is all about a bet that sending a missile attack to Syria will somehow help in bringing more peace there.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
Sigh. I just realized that this is all about a bet that sending a missile attack to Syria will somehow help in bringing more peace there.

The Middle East is a rough area that often defies conventional logic. Ever hear the M.E. joke of the frog and the scorpion by chance? If you haven't heard it, here it goes:

Somewhere in the Middle East, a scorpion wanted to cross a stream but they can't swim, but a frog just happened to be swimming bye. The scorpion said "Mr. Frog, can I hitch a ride on your back so I can get to the other side?"

"No way! I know if I did that, you'd make me dinner."

"But if I did that, we'd both die".

The frog thought about it and said "That makes sense".

The frog went over to the shore, the scorpion jumped on it's back, and as the frog was swimming both across, the scorpion began to sting him.

"What did you do that for-- now we'll both die!", said the frog.

"Ah, such as it is".
 

LuisDantas

Aura of atheification
Premium Member
The Middle East is a rough area that often defies conventional logic. Ever hear the M.E. joke of the frog and the scorpion by chance?

I have heard variations. It is a fairly universal joke (the frog and scorpion part, that is).

In any case, that the political situation there is so troubled and confused is hardly a reason to resort to force. Particularly when such force is applied in a confused, unfocused and uncommited way by its own turn.

Assuming that bloodbaths in the Middle East are unavoidable is the very worst kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
I have heard variations. It is a fairly universal joke (the frog and scorpion part, that is).

In any case, that the political situation there is so troubled and confused is hardly a reason to resort to force. Particularly when such force is applied in a confused, unfocused and uncommited way by its own turn.

Assuming that bloodbaths in the Middle East are unavoidable is the very worst kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.

Why are you assuming the part I underlined?
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
You mean you disagree?

It would take something on the lines of what I describe here in post #74 of another thread for me not to conclude that it is so.

By chance, did you follow any of the congressional hearings, especially when the Joint Chiefs of Staff officer answered a related question in regards to whether he thought we can be at least somewhat effective? He answered in the affirmative.
 

Wu Wei

ursus senum severiorum and ex-Bisy Backson
Meanwhile Russia has ships on the way to the area and there is some doubt as to who actually set off the Chemical weapons and there is some evidence that the Syrian Army was as surprised as we were and Russia claims to have evidence that it was done by one of the rebel groups, possibly Al-Qaeda. and they have submitted this evidence to the UN

And beyond all of that Kerry lied about the UN taking to long and that the evidence of such an attack would vanish. Evidence of Chemical attacks can be found in the ground for years afterwards.

It isn't worth WW III folks, I'm sorry but it isn't. Not to mention the cost to the US in doing this and even in the best scenario for the US if it fires missiles, it will do little to change anything there. Look at Afghanistan if you don't believe it. The history of the region has always been the biggest toughest nastiest guy ends up in charge and all we are doing id creating a power vacuum for the next biggest nastiest guy...which just may be from a terrorist organization which is not in anyone's best interest...except possibly terrorist organizations

Wait for the UN investigation and all the evidence and go from there
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
I would expect them to. I don't necessarily trust their judgement, though.

In a situation like this, who's judgement do you trust?

If you were to check back at some of my first posts on this subject, I mentioned a couple of times that I was undecided. However, my "rule-of-thumb" is to listen to those who know a lot more than I do, and then try to figure out which advice is the best. As much as I literally detest using military force, I'm convinced that doing nothing but whining about what a mess it is, is not only not going to help anything but will most likely just make it worse.

Interesting discussion though, and I do appreciate where you're coming from, and would prefer you to be more right than I.
 
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